Joe’s Wx Blog: Dry Stretch Continues

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Well I did hear a rumble of thunder overnight, but I’m pretty sure I didn’t get a drop of rainfall and I’m not exactly sure when I will see more rain. Many of you are in the same boat as me, and this AM I’m getting the sprinklers out and fully expect to be watering today. Temperatures yesterday maxed into the upper 90s with a smattering of 100s on the SW side of the metro. Lawrence yesterday reached 104° and Topeka hit a record 105°. They also set a record warm low temperature of 80° yesterday as well…

There is one slim chance of something happening later today…but I doubt it will. I’m watching a disturbance in central NE now that is going to drop to the SE. Odds heavily favor this passing to the west of the KC region and perhaps only giving us some cloud cover. It’s something to watch for just in case…these things can be sneaky, but right now I’m just not too optimistic of our chances…

sat

From here the forecast is essentially loaded with lots of summer heat. While not necessarily as hot as yesterday, we won;’t be that far away next week with a lot of 93-98° days on the way I hate to say. With a large area of High Pressure aloft (the summer ridge) this should nearly eliminate of storm chances for a long time around these parts. Our 16 day EURO ensemble model gives us a whopping 6/10″ of rainfall…well below average. Over the next 10 days the operational EURO model does not paint much hope for getting much rainfall.

ScreenHunter_02 Jul. 10 07.52

As far as temperatures go, here is a look at the anomalies through the next 10 days as well…showing temperatures for highs some 5°+ above average.

ScreenHunter_03 Jul. 10 07.52

Click on those graphics above to make them more readable.

There is a weird scenario for next week that while not promising for us is something else to be watched. There is a system approaching the NE part of the country. It’s an upper level trof whose southern part may split off and start moving to the SW(!). Some of our models take this over the next 10 days and eventually get it towards the northern Gulf region then take it into the SW part of the country…it could be enough to really help the monsoon moisture later next week or next weekend. Not sure if it can do anything for us…

By the way, on this date back in 1913 Death Valley, CA hit 134°. This is the hottest temperature recorded in the world.

In KS the all-time record is 121° set back in Fredonia in 1936 and again in Alton in 1936. On the MO side the record is 118° set back in 1954 in Warsaw and Union.

We’ve been tracking Chantal, indications are that Chantal has now weakened to below tropical storm strength and may be what’s now considered a tropical wave…there is a recon plane heading out there this AM to take a look and see if they can confirm what the satellite pictures are showing. Some of the moisture from this may still affect the SE part of the country over the weekend…there is also a chance that a very weak system could move farther south, and perhaps get into the Gulf Of Mexico…the winds aloft are basically ripping the storm apart. Those shearing winds will relax in a few days and may allow some minor strengthening again. We’ll see though because these systems have a tough time coming back after being sheared so much.

That’s it for today. It’s going to get awfully tough to write blogs for awhile with not a lot going on…I’ll do my best though….

Joe

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