Joe’s Wx Blog: Another Chance Arrives
It’s no secret that things have been awfully dry around these parts. My last weather blog dealt with the upgrade to our drought status…but as I’ve mentioned so many times in the past…this summer is still vastly different than last summer…because while the rains have been spotty and paltry there have been numerous opportunities for rainfall over the last 4 weeks or so…it’s just that very few have produced on any widespread basis. I know that’s semantics but it’s still different. So logic would tell us that eventually out of all these opportunities something would have to pan out…and leave it to a very unusual set-up for late July to potentially produce it.
As we know it’s been unseasonably cool around KC for the last couple of days including record low temperatures and even record low HIGH temperatures through MO too. So obviously something is going on, and as summer tries to fight back tonight into the work-week we’re going to see a large area of rain develop. It’s actually a very springtime set-up with an unusually strong low level jetstream setting up tomorrow AM…and the strength of the low level jet, combined with the summer season is actually a strange combination. A tremendous amount of moisture will be shoved towards our area and this means the potential for heavy rainfall, So why am I more confident about tomorrow than these other systems than have teased us? It’s because of the aforementioned low-level jetstream which as you know I’ve written about in the past as the main thing preventing our area from getting into the good rainfall from these previous systems.
So there are 2 things I’m paying attention too…1) is the low level jet that will be poking right at the KC area tomorrow and the other thing is the tremendous amount of moisture that will be available in the atmosphere as all this comes about. I’m referring to the Precipitable Water or PW as we say in the office.
Take a look at the NAM portrayal of this tomorrow…this data is from NEXLAB…it reflects about as much moisture as you’ll see in the atmospheric column during this time of the year! This map is valid @ 4PM Monday
More than 2″ is VERY impressive and relatively rare for late July. So the atmosphere will be primed and loaded with moisture…now take a look at the low-level jet, which is basically a river of air at around 5000 feet…and notice where that river is going…this data is from last night’s run.
So this is a step in the right direction but already there are differences between last night and this AM with this “river” of air. The latest data has the jet considerably weaker than last night…and as a result the rain that develops is NOT as organized as what I’d like to see. This creates BIG problems for us to get the absolute heaviest rainfall and that’s one reason why the NAM is now somewhat backing off on the heaviest tallies after several days of producing crazy copious rainfall. It could still change but it appears that some may not get as much rain as they would like out of this set-up tomorrow into Tuesday AM
My bet at this point is the potential for widespread 1/2-1 1/4″ rainfall with the potential for some areas to get over 2″…and considering how moist the atmosphere is some may do even more than that. I’m NOT going to post any rainfall model forecasts today because the information has been so unreliable lately.
By the way I’m still away on vacation and playing golf. I saw this the other day and got a chuckle…look closely and some golfers actually hit or perhaps put the golf ball in the cactus…there are two in there! Click on the image to make it more visible.
Good luck with the rain…I’m heading towards Sedona today where they get some decent PM storms during this time of the year. Folks here have been complaining a lot about the humidity…dewpoints this AM are in the mid 60s and the other AM dewpoints were around 70° so it’s pretty ripe when temperatures are in the 100s. Remember when I said last week I wonder if we’d have more rain here than in KC…so far the answer is yes…let’s hope that trend reverses for KC on MON into early TUE AM.