Joe’s Wx Blog: Pesky NW Flow

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Here’s an interesting stat for you…Omaha, NE had their 2nd driest July in their recorded weather history with .44″ of rainfall…meanwhile in Oklahoma City, they had their 2nd wettest July ever with 9.84″ of rainfall. All sorts of wet July records have been set for the past month, especially on the Eastern Seaboard from FL northwards. For us according to @Weatherornotinc it was our 45th driest.

A zone has set-up through the Plains states today, we’re in NW flow and we need to watch what’s happening in NE for our potential rainfall. This AM I’m tracking a weak disturbance that is generating showers and a few storms in central/eastern NE as I type this. Take a look at radar from the NWS in Omaha, NE.


There is a disturbance in there and it shows up even better on the visible satellite image.


That is tracking to the SE and some of our short-range models are bringing rain into the region as early as this evening…it’s something to watch for. I’m NOT confident it will get all the way here…but areas NW of the metro may have some scattered showers as early as this afternoon.

There are 2 chances of rain showing up in my opinion. One is tomorrow and the other is Sunday. Models will not handle this scenario well…these NW flow disturbances are tough to pick out and can be very small scale which will give the modelling fits for accuracy, but the flow aloft dictates that any one of these disturbances can create rain for our region…and there should be a stronger one, closer by tomorrow, hence what I feel are higher rain chances on FRI…especially through 2PM or so. Another chance will move in on Tuesday.

The long-term forecast is still cool, but NOT until later next week as a Canadian airmass should filter through the Plains states. Look at the 850 mb temps (4000-5000′ up or so) for the same time frame as yesterday’s map…these are in °C but a +5° means temperatures at that level are forecasted to be close to 42°F.  Odds are this would be record cold for us IF this is close to verifying…very impressive! Obviously clouds will play a large role in this as well…but it is interesting to see the EURO be pretty consistent with this outcome.

I’ll try and update the blog later today after I get some sleep.

Have a great Thursday and thanks for reading the FOX 4 Weather Blog.



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