Joe’s Wx Blog: Frustrating Forecasts Go On

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2PM Update:

Well some have had a steady light rain today…out towards Topeka and Lawrence they’ve had a whooping .02-.05″ of rainfall. As radar shows below the rain is still struggling to make it into the KC metro and while there may be some additional sprinkles/light showers this afternoon, the amounts will be very minor.

I continue to be unimpressed by what may happen tonight and still feel this whole thing will not come together for us. My feeling is the heaviest rains may be well south of the KC area overnight into tomorrow. I think the Flash Flood Watch that is in effect from KC southwards is too far north. The atmosphere is a jumbled mess, there is a frontal boundary all the way towards the I-44 corridor…no low-level jetstream to overrun the front to our south and potentially subsidence or sinking air behind this weak disturbance in eastern KS. I think all this equals a non-event for the KC area. Maybe some light showers near daybreak…but even that will be a push at this point for the KC area.

+++++++

I knew a few days ago that this was going to be one of those weeks where Mother Nature would be trying to show who is really boss in the world of weather. Us humans try and figure out what she is going to do before she does it, but from a few days ago timing things out and where the rains would fall was all appearing to be very problematic this week.

I sent out a tweet a few days ago to mention that and sure enough, us humans have been somewhat humbled this week. I don’t think my personal forecasting though has been that bad, certainly it could be better and today is a case in point. Finally last night during the late news I got a grasp on what was going to happen today. during the early newscasts maybe not so much, but during the 10PM news…it came together. I showed a couple of graphics of where the rain would be this AM (verifying nicely) and updated the forecast to suggest showers would be in the KC metro area near lunch (should work out from KC southwards). If you missed the late news, I totally get it. Hey the Royals were playing (and won) and there are lots of other things going on. That’s why it’s so important (I think) to follow me/us on Twitter (@fox4wx). Since I was making pretty big changes to what was going to happen today I sent out tweets with the graphics that were showing the changes. You know what a fan I am of Twitter and it’s great way of communicating weather information…so again a reminder to follow us!

With that said, my forecasted high of 84° probably will be a bust, and we may only be in the 70s today from KC southwards with the clouds and showers. Farther north where the rain may never make it today, it very well may be in the 80s as the clouds thin somewhat.

So where do we go from here? Well the useless NAM is still suggesting a real good rain, tomorrow especially. Considering this model did not handle what is happening today at all…I’m suspect. The GFS is not exactly thrilled about the situation for tomorrow either and while the EURO model does have rain, it’s mostly from I-70 southwards…and that may be how things pan out, perhaps even a bit farther south of the KC metro. So IF we’re not careful the rain that’s to our SW this AM…will weaken as it moves into the drier air on top of KC and while eventually some of the rain may get into the metro, the heaviest this AM will be well SW of the KC area. Here is a look at the NWS radar from Pleasant Hill, MO.

You can see, at least as of this writing, that the rain is having a tough time moving NE towards KC…so I’m not expecting a lot through lunch closer to the metro.  We’ll watch radar this AM.

There should be showers in the area from KC south and east through this afternoon but then a piece of this disturbance will rotate away, and it’s very possible we’ll be fine for this evening in the area…which means OK conditions for the game tonight, and comfortable too! Here is the HRRR model (which has done good to great over the last few days {only goes to 15 hrs though}) for early this evening. This map shows what the model expects radar to look like @ 6PM tonight.

ScreenHunter_18 Aug. 08 07.57

Now let’s broaden our view a bit more…same time expected on a more regional view…

ScreenHunter_19 Aug. 08 07.58

What’s missing with this perspective…yup ALL the rain the the NAM thinks is going to be in KS heading this way. I have some real questions about how all this will play out tonight and tomorrow AM. I’m worried that what’s happening now with the Plains convection will throw the atmosphere into another tailspin and we may get very little rainfall out of this situation tonight and tomorrow. I really don’t see anything on the water vapor loop in the flow to be excited about either that would be heading this way overnight tonight…so while I’ll analyze the situation later today, I’m increasing pessimistic that something worthwhile will happen tonight…we’ll see.

I’m working the noon show today, which means I’ll be updating the weather blog early this afternoon, before 3PM…probably closer to 2PM. I’m also doing the evening shows…so I’ll watch everything carefully for you…but right now, I have a bad feeling about how this plays out. Hopefully that will change.

Joe

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