Joe’s Wx Blog: The Next 10+ Days Of Rain

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Not surprisingly our weather has been beautiful for the last couple of days and today will be no exception with essentially the same type of day as yesterday except we should be a couple of degrees warmer and that will carry on through tomorrow as well. Towards the weekend highs will get closer to, if not go above 90° or so. This may linger into early next week.

The problem will all this is that we continue to be dry. Granted some areas of KC had over 1″ of rain on Sunday AM, but actually some areas had less than a 1/4″ and once you got farther NE of the KC Metro area amounts trickled to only about 1/10″ or so, pretty much in the area that has severe drought conditions developing and expanding.

So where are we going from here. Unfortunately for those who want rainfall it doesn’t look promising for awhile. There may be a chance here or there (perhaps towards the middle of next week with our next decent cold front) but it certainly is not a “wet” pattern shaping up. As a matter of fact the latest 10 day rainfall forecast off the EURO model gives most of the area under 1/4″ of rainfall.

ScreenHunter_07 Sep. 03 07.05

and IF we extend that even more, let’s say for the next 16 days, all the way to the 17th  of the month the news is not a lot better.

ScreenHunter_08 Sep. 03 07.08

Yes we’ll get more rain, but the amounts may be paltry compared to average. September is a “wet” month for us with over 4.5″ of rainfall on average but you can sort of see how we’re setting up for another dry month…and the only way we’ll get close to average or above this month is by seeing a total reversal in the rainfall situation during the last half of the month. My fear is that into the middle of the month, NW flow will continue which during this time of the year is very dry for us as we head into the fall season.

It seems over the last 12 years September is an all or nothing month for us, either we have lots of rain (2010/08/01) or the amounts are under 3″ (most of the other years). From this point in time it looks like the odds are favoring something on the under side as opposed to the “over” side.

That’s it for today…my next blog will be a summer recap for the region I think. Enjoy the pretty days and the comfortable mornings.


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