Joe’s Weather Blog: More Rain On The Way
Between this morning and what’s ahead for later Thursday the region as a whole should receive some much needed rainfall over the next 3 days, which is a very good thing considering how dry it is out there. Granted we got some rain on Sunday late night but the rain was mostly under 1/2″ and while welcome certainly wasn’t enough.
This cool dense airmass that actually is only a couple of thousand feet thick is still hanging tough. My forecast yesterday hinged on the clouds breaking in the PM which they did not, as a result I was about 10° off on my forecast highs…which rarely happens to me but it sure bit me yesterday. I thought it’s be a cool day, I even called it chilly on Sunday night, but I also thought we’d get a little sunshine to work into the area from the north bouncing temperatures 5-10° late in the day. The low gray overcast though won (typically that happens more in the late fall/winter/early spring) and temperatures maxed out @ 62° making yesterday the coolest day since May 5th (135 days ago).
Temperatures today are tricky as well and with rain coming into the area during the AM hours, it sure will stay cool through lunchtime. Radar is showing plenty of light to moderate rain on the KS side as I type this moving to the NE
Doppler estimates show that the rain amounts out there have been between 1/2-1 1/4″ or so, and should the rain hold together nicely we too may end up with 1/2″+ out of this before lunch…certainly welcome news.
This is a result of some low level winds a few thousand feet above the ground transporting warm moist air over the cooler dense air on the ground. This creates lift and when you combine that lift with a weak disturbance and SW flow aloft, it creates rain.
The map above shows the winds at around 5000′ or so and notice how the “strongest” winds (in reality only about 30-35 MPH) are pointing right towards us. this is the nose of the “low Level jet” and it’s a great area of lifting in the atmosphere when that jet is overriding cool dense air. Hence the rain moving through the area.
Behind this disturbance there should be sinking air that should erode and break the clouds up sometime this afternoon or at least thin the clouds somewhat…highs though will again struggle in the 70s I think assuming that’s the case. Maybe even cooler to the NE of the Metro.
Then we should pop into the warmth/heat overnight tonight and tomorrow, with mostly dry conditions and a LOT more wind. Tomorrow winds should be 20-30 MPH with some higher gusts likely…this should send temperatures soaring to near 90° with some upside depending on the sunshine.
Thursday should be equally as hot ahead of a cold front that will change our weather heading into the weekend. This has not changed much since I wrote about it over the weekend. This front will be a typical September front and will replace a warm-hot airmass that is loading with high dewpoints and moisture with one that is more seasonable and drier…setting the stage for a great KC weekend (Fall starts Sunday afternoon). Here is the forecast map for 7PM on Thursday with the front moving through
There should be storms, if not long the front, certainly behind it. Anything along the front will need to be watched for the potential some severe weather so let’s put that in the back of our minds…it’s not a great set-up aloft though so it’s not a screaming set-up. As a matter of fact after the front moves through the flow aloft is still out of the SW, allowing the potential for some decent post-frontal rains to form and move through…this would be during the Chiefs game (good thing it’s on the road) with falling temperatures and also good that the Royals are off on Thursday
From there we’re looking great into the weekend.
Have a great Tuesday and enjoy the rain!