Joe’s Weather Blog: A Rainy Speed Bump

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Considering it hasn’t really rained in more than a week…our land really could use a good drink of water. Mother Nature will help us out tomorrow…but that’s the rub…a lot of folks have plans tomorrow and it appears that the timing of the rain is about the same…perhaps 1-2 hours delayed, but essentially the same front that I talked about last weekend, has the same timing that I talked about last weekend, and may produce about the same amount of rain that I talked about last weekend…so if nothing else everybody knows it’s coming…but alas the devil is in the details as we approach the rain itself.

In reality the rain that will (should) move in hasn’t really even developed yet. There is a cold front across the western Plains states that will be the key to the rain here in the KC area tomorrow. There is some pretty chilly air (not unusual) behind this front and my thoughts are that when the air arrives tomorrow AM…our temperatures may drop 10°+ with the rain and the NW winds blowing through. Here is the 1PM surface map…notice the numbers in RED

sfc

I expect to see a real blossoming of rainfall/storm activity overnight tonight. Here is a look at the forecasted radar for early SAT AM…around 2AM off the HRRR model

Capture

That’s a lot of water out there…but it should weaken somewhat as it approaches KC before daybreak tomorrow AM. By the way there is a severe weather threat in the SW Plains this evening and overnight.

So how does all this playout with the outdoor plans tomorrow. At this point here is what I expect:

Friday Night: Great…mild and breezy…really a carbon copy of what happened last night from a wind/temperature standpoint. We should stay dry through 6AM at least tomorrow.

Saturday 7AM-10AM: Rain moves in…there may be some embedded thunder as well. Rain should be moderate at times. Amounts are still tricky to figure out. Some model data is not that bullish…I’ll update my forecast a bit to open up a bigger range overall of 1/10″-3/4″ for the event duration. Temperatures @ daybreak should be near 70°

Saturday 10AM-1PM: Temperatures dropping from near 70 to near 60° (perhaps even cooler) with a nuisance rain falling. At times it will be moderate but may be somewhat intermittent as well…raw and breezy as the winds shift and drag down the chillier air.

Saturday 1PM-4PM: Most of the rain starts to move over to the MO side towards the east/SE of the KC Metro. Temperatures start chilly but then start to recover assuming we get some clearing in the late afternoon hours…hopefully back up to about 65°-70° later in the day.

Saturday Night through Sunday: Beautiful fall weather with lows SUN AM near 50° and highs on Sunday around 75° with light winds. and clearing to clear skies

We’ll have another warming trend next week ahead of another quick hitting shot of cooler air that should move in sometime later THU into FRI AM. that will coincide with our next rain chance. So in a nutshell, the rain we get for a few hours tomorrow will have to do us until later next week. Then the rain we get with our NEXT front later next week will have to do us for awhile as well. It is by no means a wet weather pattern starting October. My definition of that word is multiple opportunities of rain that come more than once-a-week. Fall though is known for these weekly chances. After one cool dry airmass blows in, it typically wipes the slate clean from a Gulf moisture standpoint so in a sense we have to reset the table and that will take several days.

Regardless of the rain…have a great weekend…just have a plan B ready for the 1st part of the day on Saturday…after that you should be golden! Also don’t forget to follow me on Twitter. I’ll be updating the forecast/radar through tomorrow AM so you can plan out you’re day better. Hopefully they’ll still get the American Royal parade in.  There is a concern about the thunder scaring the horses.

Joe

 

 

 

 

 

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