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Joe’s Weather Blog: Storms, Blizzard, Cold/Hurricane?

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2PM Update:

The new data has come in…1st though some rainfall maps from the storms that pushed through parts of the Metro and northwards earlier today. I was driving down Ward Parkway and that was about the heaviest rain I’ve driven through in a LONG time. it was flat our pouring…

Here are some totals from the northside…

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Now a little farther south…but once you got south of SM Parkway it started to taper fast and by the time it got to 435/470 on the south side…not much was left for many areas.

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Meanwhile the afternoon data has not changed a lot with regards tot he cold front due in tomorrow evening. The front should move through between 8-12AM or so and from there the temperatures drop. Here is the forecast map for tomorrow evening…this may be about 3 hrs fast based on some late afternoon data…so the front may be on our doorstep around 9PM or shortly thereafter.

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With the front comes the storm chances…here is the “future” radar product off the hi-res WRF model

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The other thing to note is the potential for a frost on SUN AM…the NAM model has trended a bit colder today…taking temperatures down into the 32-36° range. There is a question of the winds though…the only way we get that cold is IF the winds drop off. That is not set in stone…there may be enough wind/cloud cover to keep temperatures from free-falling that much…still we’re talking upper 30s. We’ll need to watch the protected areas that have wind breaks as well as some of the river valleys that are protected from the wind for the “potential” of scattered frost. At this point though perhaps MON AM has the better potential in spots with the light/calm winds.

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Man there is a lot going on on the weather map this AM. AS I type this, skies are bright and sunny but to my NW in NE KS and NW MO a slowly weakening line of t/storms is heading this way. It should move in over the next few hours and bring us at least some rain, perhaps under 1/2″ or so for spots since the storms are weakening. They were going pretty good last night in NE creating some flooding rainfall…and it is a bit unusual to see a line of storms like this in October…this is what WAS supposed to happen this past summer. Here is a look at radar so you can see what’s going on via the NWS in Pleasant Hill, MO

This will actually bring a nice soaking rain through parts of NW MO…so bully for them!

After this line weakens and falls apart today, we should clear out and warm back up to near 80° by late in the day. Everything that I’ve written about concerning tomorrow for the last few days is still on track. Our surface storm is developing now in E CO and will move to the NE…

Here is the timeline for Friday.

Friday Through 3PM: Partly Cloudy, windy and warm…temperatures 80-85°. South winds 20-30 MPH.

Friday 3PM-8PM: We should be watching storms developing to the west of the metro…they may be briefly severe with the potential of gusty winds…and then organize and move our way while slowly weakening.

Friday 8PM-1AM: Fast moving line of storms moves through the metro. Weakening as they do so but there will be an isolated risk of a strong-severe wind gust. The heavy rain should only last 15-45 minutes before the lighter stuff moves in…and all the rain for KC should be done no later than 3AM SAT morning lingering longer to the SE of the metro. Cold front moves through between 8-12AM. Winds switch towards the W/SW at 20-30 MPH…temperatures quickly fall some 10-20° during the passage and keep dropping so that by 3AM SAT we’re down into the 40s!

SAT AM through 1PM: Skies may be mostly sunny but with gusty NW winds and colder temperatures…we start in the 40s (feels like 30s) and warm up to about 50-55° by lunch (feels cooler)

Saturday 1PM-5PM: We may see some cloud cover reform in the colder air…if not we”ll max out between 55-60° I think with the winds slowly dropping.

From there we’re fine for the rest of the weekend…chilly SUN AM with lows in the upper 30s (some frost potential in spots but the winds may keep the air too stirred up) then on Sunday highs should be 60-65° with lows MON AM in the upper 30s with light winds…(patchy frost possible)

On the back side of the storm, where there will be a combination of biting October cold and wind…near to blizzard conditions are possible from WY through the N Plains out towards the Badlands. Here is a forecast from the NWS showing the probability of 8″+ of snow over the next 3 days…

ScreenHunter_03 Oct. 03 08.27

Looks like SE WY through western SD and NW NE are really under the gun with this. Winter Storm watches/warnings are in effect for that region! It’s in the middle 40s there now but will get colder and colder over the next 24 hours.

Meanwhile down in the Gulf of Mexico…Karen has been born and is looking rather healthy at this writing. It’s a Tropical Storm now but may intensify to near or hurricane strength over the next several days and it heads to the north.

So on Saturday I’ll be tracking that…a blizzard…falling temperatures and the potential of some patchy frost…all in one weather cast. Should be fun for me!

I will be updating the blog this afternoon with a new timeline if needed and in the time that it took me to put together this blog we’ve gone from sunny to a low gray overcast!

Joe

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