Joe’s Weather Blog: Rain Confidence Increasing

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This morning we dropped down to 28° which is our coldest fall morning so far. Another morning as well with a heavy frost out there. Bright sunshine though and an increasing SW wind will allow highs to pop to near seasonal averages for late October with highs today in the 60-65° range. St Joseph this AM dropped to 24°.

Everything that I wrote about yesterday is still looking pretty valid. I ended up increasing the highs for Monday into the upper 60s and I may jump Tuesday as well later tonight as the newest data rolls in. The rain chances still appear to be highest between 12AM-Noon TUE then again on WED into THU AM.

I won’t rehash the storm itself since yesterday I covered that well. Let’s talk about the front to the north though, because that will still be a trick in determining the temperatures especially on Tuesday. Here is the forecast for tomorrow @ 7PM…the front will be just barely to the north of KC…and it’s southward progress will slow to a crawl it appears.

sfc

Then by TUE @ 1PM the front, if it moves to the I-70 corridor at all…will then be on the retreat as a warm front in the PM on TUE.

sfc

As the low level jet intensifies on MON night, as I explained yesterday a complex of t/storms should develop to the west of the area and roll towards the E or ENE. The NAM model this AM is VERY bullish with the rain totals from this, with most of the rain coming from these storms through TUE AM.

ScreenHunter_05 Oct. 27 10.08

The would be widespread 2-3″ of rain, especially from the metro northwards. Welcome certainly for areas NE of KC where a severe drought persists. Here is a closer look at the hi-res NAM model centered on top of KC…optimistic for sure on the rain amounts.

ScreenHunter_06 Oct. 27 10.13

Worried that areas south of KC may not get as much rain out of this. We’ll also need to watch this front like a hawk, because it would be from near the front and northwards that the heaviest rain should set up.

The winds @ 5000 feet are set-up perfectly at 1AM TUE morning…so let’s see if this plays out.

The rain should taper later TUE AM and TUE PM may be mostly dry with scattered showers assuming the front is pushing north of the KC metro.

The rain chances will continue on WED into THU AM or so. Still trying to time the end of the storm itself. It appears that we still should be OK for later THU into THU night with more blustery conditions expected for the trick or treaters.

That’s it for today…again we’ll be on closer to 11PM tonight after baseball.

Joe

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