Joe’s Weather Blog: Another Storm Threatens

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Saturday afternoon update:

Not surprisingly, time is short today do to other station commitments so basically here is an update.

There are no significant changes in the next storm system. Rainfall amounts and timing seem to be about the same as what I wrote about on Friday. There is a question about will the rain end 1st thing WED AM or end WED PM.

I still expect winds to really pick up tomorrow and especially Monday. Data today indicates that the wind several thousand feet off the ground on early Monday will be close to 60 MPH. The potential is certainly there for 30-35 MPH wind gusts on early Monday. These strong winds should lighten up during the afternoon a bit as the strongest low level wind flow moves away from the area.

The heaviest rain may come TUE night into early WED AM. At this point I’m expecting a 1/2″-2″ storm system.

I’ll write up a full blog tomorrow afternoon and get it posted by 2PM.

Enjoy your Saturday.

Joe

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Well after all the rain from the 3 day storm this week…some much needed dry weather will stay with us through the weekend. One note about Sunday into Monday…expect stronger winds to be developing by late AM Sunday and continue through early next week.

The winds will be created by a combination of high pressure moving off towards the east of the region and a developing area of low pressure in the Rockies. Here is the forecast map for later Sunday afternoon. Notice all the black lines…those are isobars, or lines of equal pressure. The dashed RED lines are the isotherms (lines of equal temperatures). the GREEN lines are the isodrosotherms (lines of equal dewpoint).

This map is valid for 6PM Sunday evening. the center of High Pressure is actually up across SE Canada. The wind flow is out of the south.

So since you have air blowing AWAY from high pressure…and into LOW pressure which is helping to take the air in…the bigger the pressure change for a particular distance the stronger the wind flow. Since the isobars are pretty packed together through the area (this means there is a larger pressure change) the winds will be blowing…probably at 20-35 MPH later Sunday into Monday. The whole process is called the Pressure Gradient Force.

So that takes care of why the winds will be blowing…now let’s talk about the storm itself. Initially as the the main storm which will approach the PAC NW tomorrow AM moves closer, it will help to buckle the flow across the western part of the country. That will put our area into a strong SW flow aloft. over the weekend. The storm moving into the PAC NW will help to nudge a spinning upper level weak storm off the coast of Baja CA NEwards and increase our clouds rapidly into Monday. So in effect we’re talking about two pieces of energy, the 1st being benign while the 2nd is the main show for TUE into WED AM. You can see the cloud cover on the western satellite picture this afternoon off Baja and also the main storm off the NW coastline.

So as the main upper level storm dives into the western part of the country will split apart a bit with one piece going through the N Plains and another piece hanging back. Here is the 500 mb forecast off the NAM model for the next 3.5 days.

You can see the various upper level features that I talked about above affecting the pattern. The shearing storm off Baja being ripped apart in the fast SW>NE flow through the Plains and the splitting upper level storm off the NW Pacific coast.

The bottom line for us in increasing rain chances starting early Tuesday and continuing through WED AM before a very brief shot of cool air comes in behind the storm on WED.  We’ll warm up nicely later next week and IF things progress according to plan NEXT weekend may be really nice as well.

So I’m expecting rain to start early Tuesday and there is the potential for another 3/4″-2″ of rain to fall out of this. Perhaps at this point based on the data, the potential of the heavier rains are to the SE of the KC area…but this is obviously something that could change.

Here is a look at the rainfall forecast off the hi-res EURO model which we now have access to starting today. This is through THU 6AM…

Capture

Same idea except now the GFS model…

Capture

So you get the idea…

October finished slightly cooler than average @ KCI (-1.3°) and also wetter than average (+1.58″). St Joseph was 2.86″ above average and Sedalia was .09″ below average.

Have a great weekend and I’ll update the blog on Sunday for sure…maybe Saturday too. I’ll be participating in the Science Pioneer’s Meet a Mentor day tomorrow @ UMKC starting at about 9AM. If you have a student who is interested in the Sciences or many other different studies check out their website here and see if you would like to participate! Since I’ll be doing that I may not get a blog done in time tomorrow afternoon.

Joe

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