Joe’s Weather Blog: Storm Arrives

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Well it’s been talked about for days here on the blog and on the air…our storm is here as rain continues to overspread the region from the south. Now that it’s here it looks like it will be with us for then rest of the day in an off/on fashion (mainly on later this evening). Radar this morning is not encouraging for those who want to do anything outside today. While light as of this writing, it will be getting steadier and heavier today and there may be some rumbles of thunder as well.

 

It still appears that areas S/SE of KC may end up with the heaviest totals. More on that in a moment. If you’re curious about the rain through the day, here is a look at the latest HRRR model from IA State showing what our short-term computer models think will happen over the next 15 hours or so. This will be live-updated for you throughout the day, so feel free to check back in with the blog all day/night long as the data on radar/computer models will constantly update to the current information for you.

 

The 7AM surface map shows a frontal boundary stretched out to our west. It’s pretty stationary and will stay that way till this evening when the front to the west will start marching eastwards (rain increases with that process tonight).

sfc

It should move through towards midnight and that’s when the colder air will start to overspread the area. I think we have a chance of seeing a midnight high in the 50s tonight and then temperatures tomorrow may only be in the 40s after starting in the 30s in the AM. The bulk of the daytime tomorrow will be dry with perhaps some clearing skies in the afternoon.

As far as how much rain will fall…no real need to waver much from what I’ve said for almost a week…anywhere for about 1/2″-1.5+” on average. Some areas may get close to 2″ or so. Here is a look at the latest NAM model showing the rainfall potential with this system for the KC region.

 

ScreenHunter_07 Nov. 05 08.20

Our storm in question is located in the SW part of the country. Click here for an animated loop showing the storm in NM

On the colder side of the storm, the potential for an accumulating snow is certainly there. Still a tricky forecast, as are most of these early season snow-makers. here is some information from the NWS in Minneapolis showing the potential snow up there.

 

Our latest RPM model shows a broad swath of snow from the W Plains through the parts of the Great Lakes region. Click on that image to make it more readable.

ScreenHunter_08 Nov. 05 08.25

This should be the “Storm of the week” as nothing else is expected for about a week or so in the region. There will be a clipper type system that should graze past the region FRI night into SAT AM. but aside from give us some clouds, it should really not change our weather in any sensible way.

Actually starting THU the weather should be very nice for awhile around the area with pleasant fall afternoons and crisp fall mornings through early next week.

That’s hit for today, grab an umbrella on the way out the door. You’ll need it off and on for the rest of the day.

Joe

 

 

 

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