Joe’s Weather Blog: Great Weekend…Cold Week!

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Starting to see some very horrific pictures (but yet not surprising) come out of the devastation from the monster Typhoon Haiyan that struck the Philippines the other day. While we’ll never know the true strength of the storm, what we do know is that as measured by our weather satellites, it was one of the strongest storms in recent recorded history. I say that because we really don’t know what storms were really like back in the 60s or the 50s or the 40s (you get my drift) in this part of the world for sure. Unless the storm made landfall coincident with weather stations in that part of the world…or a ship happened to be caught and actually got through a storm like this (doubtful) the data is just not that reliable. So at least from a satellite standpoint we have a decent idea on the strength of the storm at landfall. It may not have been the strongest (maybe it was) but odds are it’s in the top 5 or 10.

Sometimes with a distant storm like this, we have a tough time with perspective on size. We hear about how this storm is devastating a small corner of the world but we can’t put that in perspective. I saw this image running around the twitter-verse recently and it helps to put things in perspective for us in the states.

Communications are still very sketchy there but we’re getting some early indications of a death toll that is at least 1200+ and should rise. between the wind and the storm surge some are comparing the scene to the destruction caused by the Indonesia tsunami a few years ago.

I think you get the idea.

With that said, around these parts the weather is wonderful. Temperatures today are well into the 60s and we should enjoy slightly cooler weather tomorrow with highs well in the 50s and light winds.

Monday is the day of transition as the cold arctic air up in northern Canada moves this way. The latest data indicates a slight slowdown to the arrival of the coldest air so that we may sneak in temperatures near 60°, if not near 70° to the south of KC on Monday before the cold air blasts through the region. Here is a look at the NAM model for 3PM Monday.

ScreenHunter_01 Nov. 09 13.21

The arctic high building southwards may be as strong as 1046-1050 mbs. That means the barometric pressure readings will be in the area of 30.88″-31.00″. That is REALLY high for any pressure reading in the US and unusually high for a barometric pressure reading in the Plains. As that core of high pressure drifts over us and the dense cold air weakens the pressure will weaken slightly…probably down to about 1040-1042 mbs or about 30.70″ or so. For those who suffer from aches and pains when there are large pressure changes in a short period of time…this means some achy joints are on the way.

It also got me thinking a bit (shocking I know). What is our all-time high pressure reading in KC. according to wunderground.com it’s 31.11″ set back on 1/5/1924. We’ll be well short of that…but still impressive and probably one of the highest in the month of November I guess.

So really the only question to the forecast is how fast does the cold air invade the region Monday. You can see from the map above that there will be close to a 20°-25° spread in temperatures during the afternoon from north to south.

We should start to moderate WED PM into THU AM, and then warm-up later in the week. This pattern is also a dry one with all the ups and downs, there really isn’t any “storm” that will directly affect us in the near-future so don’t expect much rain aside from some light stuff possible MON PM with the transition.

We should be in the 30s on Tuesday. The record low high temperature for that date is 21° set back in 1911.

Have a great weekend and enjoy the beautiful weather!

Joe

 

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