Joe’s Weather Blog: Arctic Air On The Move

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Good afternoon and thanks for stopping by and spending a few minutes reading the FOX 4 Weather Blog. It’s another great day out there with temperatures as of this writing close to 50° and with plenty of sunshine out there we should warm-up another 5-8° before the afternoon is done. The winds are very light and that’s because we have High pressure nearby creating the lighter wind regime for the time being.

Here is the Noon surface pressure map through the central Plains states. Notice that the isobars (lines of equal pressure) are far apart. The center of the HIGH is in NE MO as I type this. Remember the other day when we were talking about the 40-50 MPH winds that were howling through the region? Remember what this same map looked like with the tightly spaced isobars. This would be the opposite!

So that’s why the winds are rather light (SE @ 8 mph @ KCI and E at 3 MPH @ Downtown)…

My focus this afternoon is on the arctic air that is oozing into the N Plains as I type this. At noon the leading edge of the cold airmass is where the blue line is on the following map…that is the arctic front.

SFC

The temperatures are in RED on the above map…notice how Canada is i the teens and single digits.

As the front approaches tomorrow moisture in the form of clouds will move in tonight. That moisture is showing up on the satellite images as I type this and would can easily see it.

That moisture moves in tonight and should be with us tomorrow. As the cold air interacts with that moisture, we should start to at least squeeze out some drizzle and mist tomorrow PM/evening. There is a chance between 7-10PM or so that there could be a couple of ice pellets or snowflakes as well. It’s really not a set-up for snow of any significance because the moisture only will be about 7000-8000 feet thick. Above that the air will be pretty dry. That isn’t good for snowflake formation in the clouds.

As far as temperatures go tomorrow…everything that I’ve written about for the last few days seems to be bearing fruit. We should start “mild” with temperatures in the 50s and then see readings fall in the PM and fall faster later in the afternoon and evening. Our hi-res model data indicates we could run towards 60°+ before the front ushers in the colder weather. Right now I’m forecasting 58° for KCI (official for KC) and 60s to the south of the KC metro before the front drops the temperatures. Here is what the model thinks as far as temperatures go for tomorrow…

NAM

Notice a couple of things…1) the steady temperatures overnight…near 50° or so…that I agree with. The pop into the mid 60s that the model is showing would be OK IF we have 4-6 hours of sunshine tomorrow AM before the front moves in. I’m concerned that the clouds will be a bit too thick to realize that warmth. Also notice the sharp PM drop tomorrow in the RED line…that’s the temperature tanking behind the front…probably to near 35-40° by dinner and dropping from their overnight.

Finally I’m fascinated by what this airmass could’ve been like IF it came to us in JAN instead of mid NOV. I prepared this graphic this AM for the news showing how the EXACT same airmass has different potential during this time of the year vs the dead of winter.

Anyway it’s interesting to me at least!

By the way…a few days ago I wrote about something that was on my radar screen for THU of this week with a disturbance heading this way and the cold dry air still in place (but retreating). I think that is still on the table. Need to watch for some ice pellets there but it won’t be an issue of significance if it even happens at all. It looks like SAT may be the better chance of rain in the region…and that may break our great stretch of KC weekends with wonderful weather.

I also want to mention the potential of ANOTHER arctic airmass during the early part of the week of the 18th. The models are sniffing on a storm that could deliver some more nasty cold weather into the Plains states…

Have a great rest of the day and make sure the kids are dressed for the afternoon bus stop tomorrow.

Joe

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