Joe’s Weather Blog: The Arctic Descent Has Begun

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So it begins…the slow ooze of cold air has moved through the region and while it is squeezing out some mist/drizzle and there has been fog overnight…the colder and drier air will win out during the afternoon and conditions will dry out. From a temperature standpoint though we’ll continue to slowly creep downwards through the day and then head down tonight into Thursday. Once we drop below 32° we should not get above 32° for about 5+ days. So the promised cold weather has arrived.

Take a look at these morning temperatures just upstream from the area…the temperatures are in RED…these are from 8AM this morning.

 

A lot of single digits up across the N Plains…here is a look at the surface wind map for the country from wind.fm…and you can see the flow of air moving through the Plains states…click on it to make it larger.

ScreenHunter_17 Dec. 04 08.48

We’ll be fighting clouds for a few days as well. The snow risk looks minimal now for the area as the brunt of the snow/ice/sleet will be well south of KC and near the I-44 corridor and to the south of that interstate as well. We may get a few flakes here on Friday, but nothing sticking is expected of any significance. Here is the latest from the NWS in Springfield…for those heading into SW MO, as well as that I-44 corridor region…pay attention to the weather later tomorrow into Friday.

 

Moving farther towards the east into SE MO, S IL and W KY…it is not looking much better there…

 

The cold weather will be the dominate feature in the region through Saturday. Lows should tumble into the single digits assuming we have clear skies on a few mornings (clouds act as an insulating blanket)

This airmass is really cold and very expansive. So what ever falls down south will stick around for about a week or so. This is important because we may have better snow chances later in the weekend in the KC area…and once you get all the snow on the ground through the Plains it gets a bit tougher to warm up despite the cold airmass aloft moving away form the region which will happen next week for a while.

Here is the EURO forecast of the snow depth by later NEXT Wednesday. It’s amounts in the southern Ozarks are overdone, because there will be major icing down there…but you can get a rough idea of the extent of the snowcover out there that is forecast.

ScreenHunter_18 Dec. 04 08.58

If you click and expand that map…you’ll also notice the KC area in a 1-3″ swath of snow…this would be from Sunday’s potential snow. Also interesting is where we are right now with snow in the lower 48…roughly 37% of the country is under a blanket of snowfall as of this AM…let’s see where we stand by next MON AM!

The Sunday scenario is interesting…there is not per say an organized surface storm nearby…this will come about because of a disturbance in the flow that will be bring moisture over the cold dome of air through the Plains. The disturbance will provide a very broad area (but somewhat unfocused) of lift and that should create snow across a large area. The air will be cold, and will get very cold behind the disturbance. While typically there is NOT a lot of liquid equivalent precipitation with this (cold enough for snow here) it’s something that needs to be watched for the 1-4″ type snows for our area. Whatever falls will stick immediately although the leading edge of the snow may have a tough time penetrating the dry air that will be in place on Saturday night. Eventually though we should saturate the lower part of the atmosphere and the snow will make it to the ground sometime early Sunday AM.

Here is the GFS forecast from earlier this AM showing the snowfall forecast through 6AM Monday…again notice the KC area in a region of 1-3″ snows…and again those snow amounts to the south are exaggerated with the system on THU/FRI.

ScreenHunter_19 Dec. 04 09.10

We’ll get more into the details of this potential later this week.

Have a great day…let’s see how these temperatures really drop off over the next couple of days…

At least I got all my outdoor chores done yesterday…even managed to go to the driving range @ 4PM as the sun was starting to go down…probably a metaphor to the end of Fall in KC.

 

 

Joe

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