Joe’s Weather Blog: Light Rain To Some Snow
Good afternoon…temperatures are now above freezing for most of the viewing area and the roads have improved tremendously. We’ll be fine for the rest of the day today into this evening.
Now the question is when do we see a changeover to snow? Odds are this won’t occur till later this evening…the air aloft is still way too warm to support snowflakes forming and that won’t change till after 6-7PM. That’s aloft…then we have to deal with the temperatures at the surface which may take even longer to drop below 34°. As everything somewhat comes together…then the precip moves away from the KC area later tonight…so I just have a hard time seeing how we get much of an accumulation at all in the KC Metro (a dusting to 2″ might even be too generous).
Areas off towards the east of KC though may have a somewhat more favorable scenario. As everything starts happening this evening, there may be a period of heavier snow that develops east and northeast of the metro. Where this occurs, especially after 8-10PM…there may be a window of a few hours where it could snow hard enough to create some additional issues. Here is one of our short-term models showing the snow accumulations of 2″+ off towards central MO.
Regardless of how all this plays out…even in the metro…let’s once again start paying attention to the road conditions later this evening as temperatures again approach 32° into tomorrow AM for possible re-freezing.
Colder air will move into the region tomorrow and with clouds expected, it should be tough for us to get out of the 20s. We should moderate a bit on Sunday…and really early next week looks seasonable.
After that, things certainly get more interesting as another slug of bitterly cold air will be on the move above the Arctic Circle. This cold air will move through NW Canada into W Canada and then get released through the N Rockies and the upper Midwest on Thursday of next week and then surge through the region later next week. It’s something that we’ve seen time after time in the last couple of months and it’s going to happen again.
So how about some good news…I can see how (much like some of the other occurrences of Arctic air attacks this late fall) we warm-up nicely ahead of the plunge. Right now the potential for a run towards the 50s and maybe 60° is there on WED and maybe even THU. Clouds will play a large roll in that potential…but at least aloft the air coming in from the south would support a dramatic warm-up…so we’ve got that in our favor. We’ll pay for it next weekend though.
This month, and granted it’s not even halfway done yet…has been very cold thus far. Take a look at how the country is doing from an average temperature standpoint through yesterday (today won’t help the cause)…
With the exception of the SE part of the country…that’s chilly. As a matter of fact here in the KC area this is our 10th coldest (tied with 1937) start to December in our weather history…coldest start since 2005. The coldest 1st 12 days of DEC was back in 1919. Interestingly that month we only had about 1/2″ of snow in KC and while it was cold, the winter wasn’t that snowy…with about 13″ of snow for the winter overall!
Our next chance of some accumulating snow (after tonight) will be next weekend it appears at this point.
That’s it for now…I may add another may in about 1 hour or so…
Good morning…well I mentioned yesterday afternoon that IF anything were to happen in the morning before about 9-10AM or so we’d have a glazing issue and that is exactly what’s going on this AM with numerous wrecks on the south side right now associated with a skinny band of freezing rain that won’t amount to much in terms of totals but will create slick conditions as it moves towards the north through the north side of the metro. Temperatures are below freezing north of I-70 and will stay like that through about 10AM before popping above freezing and we should see significant improvement in driving conditions.
On the south side of KC and south of the metro, roads will improve first. They got worse first too…as temperatures edge over 32° over the next 2 hours.
First here is radar…showing the precipitation…
Now take a look at the temperatures this AM…
The dashed purple line on the following graphic is the 32° line…
Temperatures will creep into the upper 30s this afternoon.
Changeover time is still during the evening hours after rush hour I feel…so the evening rush will be smoother than the AM rush.
Still thinking any accumulations to the snow tonight will be under 2″ for the KC metro (if any at all per the latest data)…areas well east of KC may have 2-4″…more on that later this AM after I get to work.