Joe’s Weather Blog: Rain For Many…Some Not

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Good morning…thunder, lot’s of small (non-severe) hail and occasionally heavy rainfall have highlighted the morning thus far…the heaviest will wind down over the next couple of hours and move away. See details on the earthquake in Chile last night in a special weather blog that I wrote yesterday evening.

Forecast:

Rest of the afternoon: Cloudy skies with some drizzle and cool temperatures for most of the afternoon. Readings this morning were in the 40s and at lunch we were near 45° and by dinner we only may be around 50°.  We may rise a bit this evening as well.  A warm front will stay south of KC for the remainder of the day but start creeping northwards later today. As a result the farther south you go…the warmer it will be later this afternoon. There is NO threat of severe weather in the KC area this afternoon into this evening.

Tonight: Another chance of thunderstorms with some hail again possible. Temperatures will be steady or even rise…and potentially may get close to 55-60° after 12AM tonight on the northside as a warm front nudges northwards. Highest storm chances will be later in the overnight into Thursday morning.

Thursday: Thunderstorms are likely but off and on. There may be one shot again in the wee hours of the morning…then another potential in the afternoon especially from KC eastwards. Severe weather risk for KC proper is certainly there and will be watched as the afternoon may be the time of the strongest storms from the system. Especially from the KC metro eastwards in to C MO. Temperatures should be near 70° and it should be muggy as well.

Friday: As I’ve been saying for 5 days…blustery in the AM with chilly temperatures then cool in the afternoon with highs around 50° for Opening Day.

By the way the weather today for the game in Detroit is fine with readings in the PM near 50°…tomorrow may be tough though there with rain in the forecast and temperatures in the 30s

Discussion:

Forecast from the last few days playing out perfectly thus far. thankfully with all the hail that fell this morning…none of it was damaging. Mostly pea-dime sized with occasional nickels thrown in for good measure. The set-up played out as expected with a warm front well south of the KC area and strong winds just above the surface overrunning that front creating lift and thunderstorms with occasionally heavy rain. Remember over the weekend I mentioned that this had the potential of cranking out 1-2″ across parts of the area…and rainfall data this morning confirms this. Here is a small sample of some of the totals around the KC area…from the Overland Park Stormwatch program.

ScreenHunter_10 Apr. 02 08.12

Some areas as expected though have not fared as well (for those wanting the rainfall at least). Areas farther north and NW of KC have mostly missed out. Check out this doppler image showing storm totals…there may be some biased heavy totals around KC because of hail contamination..but you get the idea that N MO and NE KS haven’t had nearly as much.

 

Click on the maps below for some additional rainfall reports…

ScreenHunter_11 Apr. 02 08.21

ScreenHunter_12 Apr. 02 08.21

Here is the 8AM surface map showing the warm front towards S MO. South of the warm front…look at the RED/GREEN numbers., Those are the temperatures and dewpoints. Notice for some stations both numbers are in the 60s. The dewpoints, being that high, represent some rather juicy air that is going to try and press northwards as the afternoon moves along.

sfc

The cool NE winds that are blowing from KC northwards will also hang around for a good part of the day. So we have a bit of a battle going on…and my feeling is that unless we get a good dose of sunshine today…the cooler winds will win for most of the afternoon. As a result temperatures should stay on the cool side today…then tonight as the front moves closer and perhaps even briefly moves through the I-70 corridor…we should then see temperatures go up and the dewpoints respond as well…

With the front to our south this afternoon…we’ll need to watch for instability to develop along and south of the front. This may allow additional storms to form and with those storms will come the risk of additional severe weather. Right now, on the assumption that the front is on the southern fringe of the viewing area…the higher risk may be from Pleasanton-Butler-Lake Of The Ozarks…here is the 7PM HRRR model showing what it thinks concerning what radar may look like…something to watch for later today.

hrrr_ref_kc_14

At the same time…check out the temperatures in far S KS…reading there are forecasted to be in the upper 80s…we’ll see about that. It’s possible the model may be overdoing this and if so would be overdoing the instability. Click on that graphic to make it larger

hrrr_t2m_kc_12

So with the warm front lifting north tonight and a return of the low level jet thunderstorm chances will increase again. This could be an opportunity for N MO to get some rain as well from this situation since the warm front should be farther north than where it is now…and the overrunning from the low level jet should be present as well. Here is the 5000′ winds showing the south flow pushing over a surface boundary that should be near or north of I-70 later tonight.

 

Then tomorrow as the surface low in the SW Plains moves in…we should be set up for some severe weather. Here is the forecasted radar for later tomorrow afternoon…this is what I’m worried about for more severe storms (or perhaps our best chance of severe storms)…again especially from the metro eastwards…

hires_ref_kc_43

The KC chance of severe storms will be dependent on the temperatures…should the warm air stay off to the east of here…then our severe weather risk is low tomorrow afternoon. Should we get into that 70° air (or close to it) then the risk is higher…including the potential of a tornado somewhere (MO side?).

That’s it for today…update is possible later this AM or this afternoon while I’m watching the baseball game in Detroit.

Joe

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3 comments

  • Mike

    Hey Joe,

    What site, if you don’t mind, do you find the precip. totals that you often display. That is very useful when needing to know who got what after each rain storm.

    Thanks.

  • Alana

    Hi Joe,

    My husband and I have been loyal watchers of Fox4 for years. We watch every single weekday morning from 4:30AM until 4:50, when we both get ready for the day. Why suddenly do we not get to see the 7 day forecast in that timeframe? Lately Carly doesn’t mention ANY future weather, only the current day, which honestly is not enough information for me. Can you let me know if you plan to show the 7 day forecast between 4:30 and 4:50 or should I start trying out other channels (yuck!) Thanks!

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