Joe’s Weather Blog: Weekend Storm Lurks

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Good morning…

Here comes the wind again! Red Flag Warnings are in effect. Many don’t even know what it means when a Red Flag Warning is issued. It means that a “critical fire danger” is happening or is forecasted to occur as a combination of wind, low humidity levels and sometimes warm temperatures can contribute to an extreme fire danger”.

Forecast:

Today: After a frosty start this morning in parts of the area…skies are forecast to remain sunny for most of the day. Winds which are nearly calm this morning will increase later this morning and then turn gusty this afternoon with winds approaching 30 MPH. The good news is that with the winds out of the south, temperatures will warm into the 70s. Weather for the Royals game will be fine but windy, especially after the 3rd inning or so.

Tonight: Winds stay up and the skies should be mostly clear. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s. Winds will remain gusty overnight tonight

Tomorrow: A front will push through the region and help to switch the winds towards the NW and even towards the NE during the afternoon. I do expect to see more clouds in the area…mostly high and middle clouds. Highs should warm up to near 70 despite the wind shift.

Discussion:

Really aside from some weak wind shifts there is not a lot going on with the weather will the weekend.

So let’s focus on the next storm which I wrote about a couple of days ago. It’s a combination of 2 pieces of energy. One up across Alaska and another in the eastern Pacific. The part in AK really doesn’t show up well yet on the satellite images but the part in the Pacific Ocean certainly does…

2

So what’s going to happen. Odds are the AK piece will drop towards the SE while the Pacific piece will moves towards the east. Eventually they will come together or at least almost come together in the Plains states. Here is a look at the GFS forecast for the 500 mb level or about 18,000′ up. It shows the energy moving into the Plains…click on that level to make it larger.

gfs

So how these pieces of energy interact in the Plains will go a long way to determining our weekend weather. Odds  heavily favor us getting some rain…and there is the potential for some thunderstorm activity. A lot will be determined by the timing of everything. Should things move a little quicker…rainfall could be lighter…i.e. of the front comes through early Sunday morning. If things slow down a bit then we potentially get a bit more rainfall as more moisture moves northwards from the gulf Of Mexico. Again with storms way out in N AK and in the open waters of the Pacific Ocean…the model data, while pretty consistent, may still change over the next 48 hours as it gets a better handle on the interaction part of the storms.

The potential though is there for 1/2″ to 1.5″ of rainfall from this set-up but I’m still not ready to jump in on that yet. The EURO gives us over 1″ but it also has some thunderstorm activity drifting in overnight Saturday into Sunday AM then another batch of storms with the front moving through on Sunday afternoon. The GFS sort of does this as well…but just doesn’t crank out the rainfall. It actually tries to crank out a bit of sleet on the tail end of this on Sunday night!

One thing for sure…there will be a decent for April shot of cold weather behind this for a couple of days…one that looks very promising for a hard freeze on Tuesday AM and depending on the speed of the system even the potential of 32° temperatures Monday AM as well. Our low this morning was 33° so this really shouldn’t be that surprising.

If you’re a gardener though, especially with the milder temperatures for the the next few days into Saturday…just be aware of the colder weather coming for nearly next week. How cold…well at least for highs we’re talking 10-25° below average…

Here is the forecast anomalies for Monday of the GFS…in other words these are the +/- values compared to “average” which for us are near 65° for highs early next week

ScreenHunter_01 Apr. 09 07.58

Now Tuesday…

ScreenHunter_02 Apr. 09 07.59

and finally Wednesday

ScreenHunter_03 Apr. 09 07.59

Notice on Wednesday there is another chuck of colder than average air across the N Plains…the potential is that that chuck of cold air will come in later next week as well…so overall next week, from a temperature standpoint, does not look too promising.

Consider that a heads up…

Have a great day and enjoy the milder weather…sorry about the wind :(

Joe

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2 comments

  • Amae

    Sigh…..That figures…..(next week). Thought we would have a good chance at some nice weather for Easter, since it comes late this year…April 20. But looks like it might be cold ? Hope not Joe. Do you have any thoughts for April 20 this far out Joe ?

    But if course we did have snow in May last year, canceling a Royals game because of snow ! lol

  • Joe W.

    As a retired commercial pilot, your analyses are the only ones that are direct and complete. No drama, no hooks, just great forecasting. That is why my family and friends watch your Channel