Joe’s Weather Blog: Rain Chances/Frost Opportunity/Snow?

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I’ve spent the past week or so out in the wine country of California. Sonoma and Napa in particular. It’s been a wonderful time with lots of sampling and some great(!) weather…but the folks out here are very much in tune with the drought. Restaurants are not serving water unless you specifically ask them too and the agricultural interests here are most concerned. At first glance things appear pretty green. The mountain sides and the grasses/vines in the vineyards look about the same…but when you talk to the wineries about their water situation they have major concerns. Their retaining ponds and the creeks that feed them are very low and it doesn’t promise to get a lot better as the rainy season comes to a close.

They’ve had serious droughts out here before and a couple of years ago it was too much water creating headaches for the vineyards…

 

That deepest RED color represents the worst of the worst of the drought. Some 24% of the state is covered by exceptional drought conditions while 69% is under at least extreme drought status.

Meanwhile for us in the KC area…we’re begging for a bit of rain as we come into our “rainy” season. Late April through Mid June is the rainiest time of the year and while the systems over the past week of mainly been disappointing for the vast majority of the region…there is hope for additional rain early Thursday morning as a line of storms (with severe weather potential) well west of here weaken and move into the region. Hopefully we can see 1/4″-3/4+” rain out of that on Thursday.

Then there is another storm on Sunday that will need to be watched for additional rain and the potential for more severe weather closer to the KC area. That storm at the surface will be waiting for energy aloft and potentially we’re talking about a storm in the upper levels of the atmosphere closing off and allowing cold air to 1) drain through the Plains and 2) develop on top of the area. IF #2 happens and IF the storm closes off as forecast by the EURO, believe it or not the atmosphere would be close to being able to create snow. It’s a long ways off and this is for sometime Tuesday but various models have been sniffing at this lately (certainly the cold weather potential) and the EURO in particular was rather bullish. Right now IF things pan out…we may have to concern ourselves with at least a widespread frost NEXT THU AM. That of course is on the assumption that we have clear skies and light winds. It should be noted that other models have it cold and not so nice but they don’t have snow. My feeling is that there is about a 5-10% chance of something happening like the EURO portrays this morning.

I’ll be blogging about all this over the next 5 days or so. Let’s watch Sunday in particular…a little concerning to see some of the forecast maps for that day at least off the EURO.

That’s it for today…more coming tomorrow!

Joe

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