Joe’s Weather Blog: Much Needed Rain

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So far the forecast has worked out pretty well with the rain moving into the area early this morning. Rainfall amounts will end up in the 1/4-3/4″ range (some will do better than that!)…and it hasn’t been too heavy…just a quality soaking type rainfall. Overall good news for many…except for the morning commuters.

Forecast:

Rest of today: Rain will wind down and shift off towards the east of the region. The rain will become more intermittent but the chances will continue through the middle afternoon before drying out after 4PM or so. PM highs may struggle in the 50s to around 60°

This evening: Clearing and cool with temperatures dropping into the mid 40s.

Friday: Near perfect weather with highs near 80° with a SW wind of 10-20 MPH.

Saturday: Morning storm chances (40%) then windy and warmer in the afternoon with highs 75-80°.

Discussion:

The winds last night really were blowing…I saw some gusts approaching 50 MPH! That helped to keep temperatures up overnight…and as a result we already had our high temperature for the day of 68°. With the rain moving through…temperatures have dropped into the 50s and it will struggle this afternoon as a cooler airmass + lingering rain chances help to suppress the temperatures. Here is a look at the latest NWS radar showing the rain that is out there…

 

As of this writing there is additional rain developing out towards the west of Topeka…this is important because while the rain will become intermittent for awhile this AM…it may pick up again for a bit during the early afternoon for a few hours.

More importantly the rain has been welcome in terms of the totals…

 

Regardless we’ll take it!

The rain opportunities will come back over the weekend…with a chance during the 1st part of the day on Saturday…then the warm and increasingly humid air moves in Saturday afternoon. Another better chance comes on Sunday.

You’re going to hear a lot about severe weather in the Plains this weekend…with that said there are still many questions about how this set’s up and whether or not the risk will continue into Monday (I think it will for us). There are still questions about how the various features set-up to finish the weekend. The energy for the weekend storm is still off the PAC NW coast. What will happen is that it will crash through the west coast then dive into the Rockies and then really start to wind up in the western Plains. take a look at the latest NAM model for 500 mbs or about 18,000′ up…it shows the storm developing nicely over the weekend.

 

Now how this storm develops, where the various surface boundaries set up and how unstable we get will all play major factors in determining whether or now we have a big concern about severe weather locally. Lot’s of clouds and persistent storms on Sunday would tend to reduce the chances of anything really big for us. Significant breaks in the rain with additional sunshine and afternoon heating would do the opposite and increase the severe storm chances. There really hasn’t been a big change in the thinking from the SPC…

 

Day 4 represents Sunday and day 5 is Monday.

One thing to me is clear…and that is unusual cold for late April heading this way…from TUE-THU of next week. So that is something that I want you to monitor as well.

Regardless of how all this plays out…always good to start thinking about a severe weather safety plan…and to actually practice it with your family!

Winds will be blowing away later Saturday into Sunday as well. Gusts to 50 MPH could again crop up depending on the sunshine and mixing of the atmosphere…but Saturday night may be very windy at least.

I wish I could be more specific about Sunday…but IF things slow down more…I’m really not sure how Sunday would play out for the metro area.

Joe

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