Joe’s Weather Blog: Cool Rest Of The Week

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Temperatures this month (through yesterday) were running 4° above average for the month…we’re going to eat away at that significantly over the next 5+ days or so as cooler weather is here to stay for awhile.

Forecast:

Rest of today: Slow clearing with NW winds of 10-20 MPH. Temperatures today should struggle to get to 60-65° by later this afternoon. Average is closer to 75°.

Tonight: Fair Skies and crisp with lows 45-50°. There should be a fast drop off this evening followed by a steadiness as clouds move through the area.

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy and cool with highs near 60°. School Day will be dry…we’ll miss out on the rain that will be across SE MO for most of the day.

Discussion:

Today I thought I’d start with a look at the Water Vapor (WV) loop which shows a couple of features still influencing our weather in the region..

 

The main one continues to be the upper level storm that is rotating around NM this morning. You can clearly see it spinning there. The main field of moisture has been shoved away from here…but with the low spinning around it continues to bring a feed of mid-upper level moisture up through the Midwest. It may be tough to get rid of that stuff entirely.

That upper level storm will come out eventually merge with another disturbance that is moving into the upper Midwest over the next couple of days…and eventually turn into a rather significant and chilly upper level storm that will rotate through the Great Lakes area.You can see that other disturbance up in Canada now…

 

Take a look at the forecast from the NAM model of what happens at around 18,000 feet. Notice the movement of the storm in NM towards the ENE and then it gets captured by the upper Midwest storm…and they combine.

 

That combination spells a cool weather regime for quite a few days in this part of the country as the soon to be new upper level storm will tug down cool for May air into the Plains states and you can plainly see that aspect of things by looking at what happens above the surface around 5000′ or so…the 850 mb level.

This is valid for later in the week…

Remember the isoterms (or lines of equal temperatures) are contoured in the above map and are in Celsius. The thickest blue line is the 0°C line or 32°F…the contours are then every 2.5°C. O°C lines in May certainly catch my attention.

I bring this up because I can see how parts of the area, should we be clear on Friday morning may see some patchy frost. The record low is 37° set back in 1997 and that will need to be watched carefully. At this point on the assumption that we have ideal conditions (light winds/dry enough air and clear skies) the best potential for a light frost would be to the north and NE of the KC metro…but it’s something to pay attention too.

The soon to be created upper level storm will wander around the Great Lakes region into the weekend before pulling far enough east to allow milder/warmer air to return next week. We should be in the 80s again later next week.

The good news about this is that we should stay free of severe weather concerns for quite some time here in the Plains which will be unusual for the middle of the month.

As this dance occurs on Thursday there may be some scattered showers in the area…then there should be a some more on Saturday and depending on on the features set up…we’ll need to watch for some additional rainfall early next week.

As the cool air slowly pulls away early next week…the hotter air will be to our southwest. So in essence there will be a rather significant change in the airmasses located close to the KC area. This is called a baroclinic zone and with it being May…and it “wanting” to rain easier than at other times of the year…this will need to be watched as a zone for thunderstorm development. It’s about a week away but something that certainly caught my eye this morning with the unusually cool stretch of May weather coming. In 2011 we had a cool for mid May stretch of highs from the 13th-19th with lots of 60s for highs in that period…we may do it again.

I’ll be filling in for MT tonight and later tomorrow night as his focus shifts to School Day at the K for the next couple of days. It’s tomorrow and I can’t promise a blog tomorrow unless I can get something cobbled together later in the afternoon. We’re going to be running around like crazy for the next couple of days in the weather department. Temperatures tomorrow AM will be in the 50s for School Day so for the kids/teachers and fans coming out, we’re expecting over 12,000 for our morning class, dress appropriately! Think about that 12,000 kids coming out. Other TV stations have copied our ideas in other parts of the country and are lucky to get a few thousand…but KC loves our program and schools come from near and far to have a great time!

See you on the news tonight at 5/6/9/10!

Joe

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