Joe’s Weather Blog: Storms/Heat/Beneficial Rain?

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Good afternoon and thanks for stopping by the FOX 4 Weather Blog…all quiet as of this writing with the exception of some pop up showers/storms on the MO side that are drifting westwards…more on that in a little while.

Forecast:

Rest of today: The showers/storms that are out there may become a bit more numerous over the next 6 hours or so much like yesterday. Coverage won’t be great though but some VERY localized areas will see a burst of heavy rainfall.

Tonight: As has been the cast lately the convection will fade and it will be be a balmy overnight but pleasant in the AM hours…lows again in the 60s.

Tomorrow: More of the same…perhaps an uptick in activity in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the 80s.

Discussion:

Well many areas continue to miss out on the beneficial rainfall. We’ve really not seen any widespread rainfall in a while…and this is the time of the year where we need to “make hay” if you will when it comes to rainfall. Once mi-June hits the rain typically gets spottier and the chances of widespread rainfall drop unless you get yourself into a MCS pattern.

Here is a look at today’s activity…from the NWS radar in Pleasant Hill…

 

You might be wondering why the activity is moving from the east to the west. This is because of our old upper level low friend that is meandering through the southern Plains today and actually moving westwards, or as we say “retrograding”. You can see the storm by looking at the water vapor satellite loop of what’s going on down to the south right now.

 

 

The upper level low is still producing a bunch of rainfall in parts of the country.

 

That thing will eventually wind down and fall apart but we will stay in the northern part of it’s circulation through the beginning of the weekend…so while widespread rain is not expected through the weekend…we’ll still be fighting the the scattered storms into the weekend.

My information shows that at 1.28″ of rainfall this month for KC…we are now experiencing our 7th driest month of May in our weather history. That may change IF we get some additional rainfall over the next 2 days before the month is wrapped up.

As a result of the dry month and the “creeping” drought into the Plains…I thought today would be a good day to look back over the last few years of drought reports to see how we stood heading into June…interesting in a sense that this year does seem worse than the last several years for our local area. Take a look and use the arrows on the right/left to look back over the last few years…

Typically the droughts of past years really jumped once summer settled in and the need for moisture from the soil increased with the lack of rainfall. Our area varies from abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions.

Our temperatures have also started to heat up more on a consistent basis and after a long time of not being able to sustain warm weather…this will be our 11th day out of the last 12 days with above average temperatures in the KC area. So far for the month we’re running about 1° above for the month…and this will be the 1st month with above average temperatures since last September (+3.3°)!

Typically during this time of the year…lack of rainfall and warmer temperatures are connected…and that goes for the rest of the summer as well…so can we reverse the trend that we’re going through right now…possible but IF it’s going to happen it almost needs to happen over the next 10-14 days or so…because after that we settle into summer around these parts.

With that said there is some hope for next week…and the atmosphere will be readjusting itself and allowing the opportunities of beneficial rainfall to again develop in the Plains region…whether or not we get bulls-eyed or Des Moines does or Omaha get’s it or all of us get it…remains to be seen. With this potential will also come the risk of severe storms again in parts of the Plains region.

The latest 6-10 day forecast for rainfall covers this time period…and I really feel like we need to be something significant out of this pattern change for us to make up for a little lost ground.

 

Our EURO model shows anywhere from 1.5-4.5″ of rainfall in the region with 6″+ totals in NE MO. The GFS has this over the next 10 days…

gfs_total_precip_east_37

While the Canadian does this…and it’s almost painful to look at (the I-70 corridor)

cmc_total_precip_conus2_41

The bottom line is that the models are guidance…they show potential so don’t get to concerned about the placements of the heaviest rainfall regions at this point. At least there is potential and I’m increasingly confident that the region will see widespread 1-3+” rainfall over the next 14 days. One could argue that would be merely average…but there is certainly upside to that potential as things play out.

Opportunities are better than none at least…let’s keep an eye on Monday as a potential beneficial rain day…

That’s it for now…

Joe

 

 

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