Joe’s Weather Blog: Lather…Rinse…Repeat

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Not the most exciting title I realize and it really won’t be till next week where the forecast starts getting a bit more tricky…so for now enjoy the pool weather and remember the sunglasses/sunscreen!

Forecast:

Rest Of This Afternoon: You know the drill…isolated to scattered storms around. Odds of any one place getting rain is low. IF you hit the jackpot…it’ll last about 5-15 minutes or so. Highs 80-85°

Tonight: Pleasant with fair skies and light winds…lows 65-70°

Saturday: Same song…different verse. Isolated PM storms possible after 2PM. Highs around 85°. Winds south at 5-15 MPH

Sunday: Perhaps more sunshine and warmer temperatures Highs 85-90°. South winds 10-20 MPH…lower storm chances too.

Discussion:

Right now KCI is running about 4″ below average for the month in terms of rainfall…and about 5.25″ below average for precipitation in 2014. May/June are the two wettest months around these parts and we really need some widespread rainfall…it won’t happen today or tomorrow…so this will go down as a real dry month of May and odds are will be the 7th driest in our weather history as I blogged yesterday.

In St Joseph, MO…rainfall this month is at 2.54″ which is about 2.9″ below average for May and for 2014 they are up to 7.75″ which is also about 5.2″ below average for 2014.

In Sedalia, MO…rainfall is at 2.65″ for the month which is 2″ below average and for the year they are up to 11.36″ which is 3.79″ below average.

At JOCO Executive (151st and Quivera)…so far this May they’ve had 1.32″ of rain which is 4.12″ below average for the month and for the year they are at 7.53″ of moisture which is 7.19″ below average.

Chillicothe, MO is at .91″ for the month…more than 4″ below average for May.

Topeka, KS is at 1.63″ for the month which is about 4.74″ below average for May and for 2014 they are sitting at 7.47″ which is about 5.5″ below average for 2014
Finally Lawrence, KS is 2.07″ for the month which is about 3″ below average for the month and for 2014 they have accumulated 7.66″ which is 6″ below average for the year thus far.

Needless to say things continue to be dry in the region and compared to what is considered average…well things are pretty bleak for many areas…

 

So we really need something to change as we’ve talked about recently…

I continue to key in on several possibilities next week. The 1st will come on Monday as a bunch of thunderstorms develop in the central Plains later Sunday and move our way. Typically when this happens the higher chances will be during the 1st part of the day. How those storms hold together will be the key in determining how widespread the rainfall is in the region. As whatever forms across the central Plains marches eastwards or ESEwards odds favor the storms to weaken as they approach the region…with that said there is still some potential for some decent rainfall…especially is some sort of boundary (cold pool) is generated and set’s up south of the area later Monday morning…this would allow the winds above the surface to override the boundary and create some bonus rainfall in a sense. This also means that temperatures, which should be toasty on Sunday, back down on Monday with the rain threat and the additional clouds. The potential is there for a bit more widespread activity that generates .10-.75″ of rainfall as an average in the region. Not great but mildly helpful.

From there the next opportunity may come later Tuesday depending on whether or not some sort of boundary is generated by the Monday activity that then tries to move back northwards into the region later Tuesday and interacts with a potentially unstable atmosphere. With this would some the potential of some severe weather in the region…so let’s watch later Tuesday for that opportunity. This scenario is still very questionable considering the storms that will affect us on Monday don’t even exist yet (think about that :) )

That future warm front will lurch northwards Tuesday evening and place us squarely into the warm sector with soaring highs on Wednesday possible (90s?) ahead of some sort of cold front that will move into the region sometime on later Wednesday into Thursday AM…and that too will allow storms to come back into the forecast + there is another wave that may come out of the western Plains…helping the cause.

At this point the rainfall forecasts remain about the same for the next 10 days from a model perspective…roughly 1-3″ overall with the majority of that coming through next Friday…again I still feel that we really need to “make hay” over the next 7-14 days in terms of rainfall…I’m still encouraged that this is a better than even chance situation of 2″+ rainfall.

I think that will do it for today…have a wonderful weekend and I’ll likely get a blog update to you by 2PM Saturday.

Joe

 

 

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1 Comment

  • Patrick Trudel (@sedsinkc)

    What’s troubling to me is that it seems every week in May there have been models showing abundant rainfall around KC in the days ahead, but when the time comes for the rain, it fizzles. Hoping the same thing does not happen Monday. To me, it seems like in years trending toward drought those MCS’s that form on the High Plains in the late afternoons have a greater tendency to weaken significantly overnight or die altogether before they get to KC in the early morning hours.