Joe’s Weather Blog: Models Say Yes…But Reality Is Tricky (THU-6/26)

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Good morning…as I mentioned a few days ago…blog updates will be a bit more infrequent and may be more weather dependent since I’m on vacation this week…

Forecast:

Today: Filtered sunshine…there are some scattered t/showers out there…I’ll post radar in the discussion part of the blog. We may see more clouds this afternoon. Highs should be in the mid 80s or so.

Tonight: Partly Cloudy skies with lows in the 60s

Tomorrow: No real changes with a bit more of a breeze and highs 85-90°

Discussion:

We are in thunderstorm complex season in the Plains states and sometimes we get hit and many other times we don’t. Typically these complexes are not forecasted well by the model data. There are times when the complexes form and other times when the location is wrong or the direction of movement is totally off. There are many times when the complexes don’t even form in the 1st place. This is frustrating for meteorologists to try and predict what’s going to happen with the weather in the KC area and typically once this pattern starts up, unless there is a bigger driver to the weather (a stronger storm or a better looking cold front) you just sort of have to take one day at a time and even every 6 hours at a time to try to figure things out.

Today we have a big and now fading complex of storms in western KS that regional radar shows nicely.

If you read the blog through lunch THU you’ll see it there and it’s remnants will be around for most of the day.

The cloud shield that that little disturbance has generated is rather small but thick.

As the complex fades today we should at times have a lot of cirrus clouds filtering out the sunshine for awhile.

If you use your imagination you can see another spin (comma shaped pattern) to the clouds in SE SD. The tail to that spin is affecting NW MO with some scattered storms. It’s basically a bit of lift moving through NW MO and NE KS…the I-70 corridor is basically on the southern fringe of that lift.

Our model data continues to generate complexes of storms around the Plains over the next few days…we may have an opportunity to get into some rain on Saturday as a slightly stronger wave in the atmosphere lifts out of NW and moves to the NW of the KC region. This should help to ignite a weakening cold front in Central KS. Then it will be a matter of where the storms track after they form. The potential for widespread activity is high out to the west and NW of the region but how they hold together and for how long will determine our rain chances to kick off the weekend. With the complex through out additional outflow boundaries…will it generate it’s own weak disturbance to fire off more convection on Saturday…will we heat up at all Saturday to make things more unstable to fire off stronger storms…lots of questions for the real world and the implications for outdoor activities on Saturday. My feeling is that Saturday is the best day for the next 4-5 days of seeing some beneficial rainfall in the region so IF you have outdoor plans for the start of the weekend be alert to the forecast.

This graphic is particularly handy with the weekend approaching…always be careful when thunderstorms are around and you’re outside. (via the NWS)

Sunday looks drier, windy and warmer at this point.

Also we continue to see signs of a nice shot of comfortable summer weather for the middle part of next week heading into the July 4th holiday.

Finally this…on this date in 1990 phoenix, AZ hit their all time record high of 122°. The air was so hot they actually had to close the airport because the aircraft weren’t rated at the time to take off in that extreme heat…and remember that is in the shade and not on top of hot pavement.

But it’s a dry heat right!

Joe

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