Joe’s Weather Blog: Storms Still Possible But No Slam Dunk (SUN-6/29)
Good afternoon…quite a complicated mess out there today with remnant decaying MCS’s (Mesoscale Convective Complexes) around the area complicating the atmospheric set-up. Also helping in a large sense in reducing the instability in the atmosphere despite dewpoints that are approaching 75° out there…it’s thick air that needs something to trigger it and that something is still somewhat questionable for our area.
The latest satellite loop shows a spinning in the clouds, If you look carefully you can see it near Emporia early this afternoon. That is a remnant MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) and associated with it is a lot of thin cirrus and also in parts of eastern KS at least some sinking air. How long that sinking air holds together will be one of the keys in whether or now we get some additional storms later today.
We are also somewhat capped as well, more the farther west you get into KS…however we also have to look up across SE NE and SW IA and see what’s going on up there…and they are primed for storms to fire later today or this evening. Anything that develops up there would have a tendency to role towards the ESE or SE. I still have questions in my mind about how the KC area will line up for this activity…and it’s not out of the question something could fire up nearby this evening…but for the time being (through 6PM) most of you should be OK.
I’m going to post the HRRR model that should update throughout the night so that you have an idea what at least a model is showing. Again remember it’s only a model and IF it’s missing the boat in the 1st few hours, it’ll more likely be wrong farther down the line. This model goes out to about 15 hours.
At least of of this writing it’s showing some potential of some storms zipping through the region sometime during the mid-evening hours, which based on the way the atmosphere/clouds are showing on the satellite loop, looks at least plausible.
Our strong for late June cold front is still on tap for later tomorrow…that too may bring storms with it, perhaps more widespread although the front will be fighting a cap as well. My feeling is that the front, since it’s stronger than usual for late June, should be strong enough that the instability will be released in the form of more thunderstorms…
We get into the cooler and drier air for a couple of days on Wednesday. Forecast soundings suggest highs on WED/THU may struggle to get to 80°. At this point I can’t promise a perfectly dry holiday weekend because the heat will be rebuilding to our west and trying to press our way into a retreating cool airmass by Friday. That can be a recipe for additional storm complexes rolling our way. Long ways off but you can sort of see it happening.
Oh by the way as I wrap this up…keep an eye out into the SE Coastline as a tropical system is trying to form there and some of our model data indicates this may become at least a tropical storm over the next few days and potentially threaten the Carolinas. Should a storm actually form there it would be called Arthur.
Have a great rest of your weekend. I may get another update done on Monday.