Joe’s Weather Blog: Heat+Storms+Record Potential (SAT-7/12)

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Good afternoon and thanks for spending a little time and reading the FOX 4 Weather Blog…got to admit, when computer problems rear their ugly head at the station…and it’s Friday night…and it’s almost 1AM and you’re still there trying to figure out what’s wrong…and you realize that you have to get home and then get back up in 4 hours…not exactly the set-up for an expansive afternoon weather blog.

Forecast:

Rest Of This Afternoon: This should turn into the hottest day of the season which so far is 91° (twice so far). very muggy as well with heat index values near 100° (in the shade). Mostly sunny skies.

Tonight: (Updated @ 9:30 PM) Fine but warm this evening then increasing clouds overnight with a chance of some thunderstorm activity drifting from N MO towards the KC area before daybreak. It should be on a weakening trend as it gets closer to the I-70 corridor. Lows in the middle 70s. Winds will shift towards the north around daybreak.

Sunday: Depending on the cloud situation and the remnant storms I could see how we could be in the 83-88°.  Right now I’m keeping that 40% chance in the forecast for more storms. Although the highest chance should be in the AM before lunch it appears.

Monday: The change begins with the cold front moving in later in the morning with storm chances and then the cool air moving in behind the front into Monday night and especially Tuesday>Wednesday.

Discussion:

It seems to me that this is almost the 1st time this year that we’re seeing the potential for a decently hot day playing out. There aren’t any weird trash clouds from storm remnants bothering us this afternoon. The winds are helping to stir the airmass on top of us so we reach max heating and the air aloft is certainly supportive of hot weather…and it’s playing out that way. As of 1PM the temperature at KCI was 88° and the only thing keeping their high from reaching 95° is the green terrain in place thanks to all the moisture. Today will be the 4th day this year that highs have been 90° or above which is pretty low when you consider the average is 41 I think. Heck…I think Yuma, AZ averages 175 days! At least back in 1891 we never hit 90°+ in July and in 2009 we only hit 90°+ 3 times.

What is somewhat interesting is to note all the July’s that we had multiple days with lows 55° or less. Including this year and going back to 1890…we’ve had 23 July’s meeting that criteria. In July of 2009 (I keep going back to that month for a variety of reasons) we did it 3 times…and that’s the most  tying 1994 in that regard. I bring up that nugget because I could see how we could tie or break that particular “weird” record this coming week with the cool air coming. The all-time low is 51° set back on 7/5/97 and that too is “in play”. Tough to do it but if there is an airmass that can do it, it would be this one.

Here is the NAM forecast for 1PM on Monday, with the front already to the south of the KC area. That could change in terms of the timing of things…but while I’m shooting for 81° for a high on Monday, there is potential that that could be a bit high, because I’m wondering that IF the front and the storms are together with the cooler air coming in, can we be cooler at lunch then warm-up a bit in the afternoon?

SFC

Check out what the hi-res NAM model is portraying for 1PM on Monday…these are the temperatures that are forecasted…

 

It’s indicating temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s…interesting but it only can happen with rain and cool air pouring in at the same time.

After that though we should be in great shape for the rest of the week as the cool air is in control and the only thing keeping us from being cooler is the max sun angle of the mid-July sunshine warming the dry airmass in place. Highs should be in the lower to middle 70s TUE/WED with temperatures a few degrees warmer towards the end of the week. We’ll get warmer next weekend.

Finally when we get full moon status over the next few months…because of the moons orbit around the earth…it will be closer to the earth than usual. They’re calling it the “supermoon” but the bottom line is that supposedly the moon will be 14% larger and 30% brighter. Should make for some nice pictures if you want to send them into the weather team (wxteam at wdaftv4.com). The NWS sent out this tweet regarding the best way to photograph the event(s)…

That’s it for today…Monday will be an interesting day to track the temperatures!

Joe

 

 

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