Stay Weather Aware: Wednesday morning commute looks tricky

Joe’s Weather Blog: Temporary Heat Blast (THU-7/24)

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Well I just got back from a fun week up in northern Michigan. Always one of my favorite places to go…especially during this time of the year. Although I have been up there in the winter before and I don’t mind it then wither…but during the summer it’s wonderful. I’ve told all that IF the Traverse City area was a little bigger I’d probably move up there in a heartbeat…one of the few places I’d want to move too as a matter of fact. I’d have to do it right though…nice house on the Lake etc…needless to say with the price of waterfront property there…I’ll be in KC for a long time ;).

So with that said…it was rather cool there like it was here for a few days…during the evening though you needed long pants and a jacket as temperatures dropped quickly. It did warm up (80s) on Tuesday but it was very pleasant.

Here are a couple pictures that I took…I may post a few more over the weekend.

 

I also noticed on the drive how well the crops looked…perhaps a bit more stunted in the Lakes area because of delayed planting…but the corn was looking very good. As a matter of fact here is some data about the corn/soybean situation in MO/KS.

78% of the corn in MO is rated as “good-excellent” while 64% of crop on the KS side is in that criteria. As far as soybeans go…78% are “good-excellent” in MO and 67% in KS.

As far as range and pastureland goes…6% in MO is rated as “poor” while 20% in KS is in “poor-very poor” condition…this mainly due to the prolonged drought across western KS than continues (but is improved).

So with that out of the way…let’s talk about our changing weather…

We sizzled a couple of days ago as temperatures soared to 95-100° and I expect the same thing to happen again tomorrow. Heat index values will again be closer to 110° or so…after a great day today.

It’s perfect out there now…as of the 2PM hour temperatures were around 80° with pleasant for July humidity levels…here is the latest surface map from 2PM . The temperatures are in RED while the dewpoints are in GREEN.

 

The area of high pressure that ushered in the pleasant air is now starting to slide away from the area.

 

As it moves farther away the surface winds will become more from the south and southwest…they will also strengthen ahead of another cold front that will move in over the weekend. The air aloft will heating up as well. The other day when we were 96/99° (KCI/Downtown) the 5000′ temps were around 25°C or about 78°F.  Right now the forecast for FRI off the hi-res NAM is for those temperatures to be about 1° C warmer aloft. That would again support highs of 95-100°. There is a little fly in the ointment though, and that concerns whether or not there will be some clouds during the afternoon…the model data suggests it is possible as some moisture streams in from the Rockies…

Then on Saturday a weak front will be in the area which when you consider how hot and humid it will be…should support thunderstorms at some point on SAT. I think this is very possible and I’m slightly more bullish than the models are with regards to our chances. The complicating factor is that despite all these ingredients setting up there is an issue with the cap which very well may keep a lid on the convection…but IF something can go up, with the instability in place…we could have some low end severe storms (wind gusts as  main threat).

The chance will continue into early Sunday before a weak surface low passes through turning the winds more towards the north and allowing the promised cool down to come into the region for early next week. Unlike the last big drop more than a week ago…record lows this time might be a little tougher.

While this shot of air will be wonderful again for late July…it may NOT be as cool aloft this time. The records for the 28th-30th (MON-WED) are 52/55/52°. Regardless we’ll be finishing off the month on a chilly note (as of yesterday the avg for the month is about 4.6° below average). Highs MON-WED should be around 80° with lows closer to 60° (some 50s in the outlying areas). On the subject of the “cool” weather this month…take a look at this tweet from the NWS in Pleasant Hill.

By the way…since I’m sure I’ll get the question…here are the snow totals from the following winter with those “cool” July temperatures…

1950-51: 9″

1891-92: 20.6″

1915-16: 27.8″

1924-25: 13.1″

1895-96: 29.3″

So now you know…btw at the suggestion of @MizzouJB…the “average” now is about 18.8″.

That’s it for today…have a great day.

Joe

 

 

 

 

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7 comments

  • Farmgirl

    Joe, what are the forecasted dew points for tomorrow? It was crazy oppressive on Tuesday with 80 degree dewpoints. Horses were litterally dripping with sweat standing still and sheep were panting excessively. Humidity is dangerous to all livestock, especically the old ones.

    • Joe Lauria

      Unless KCI did it between hours on TUE…so far the highest dewpoint “officially” for KC I think is 79° so far this season. I did some research today…not very thorough admittingly, but I think the last time we hit 80° dewpoints was in July of 2010. More on that tomorrow. St Joe did have a 81° dewpt on TUE. ^JL

  • DC

    Joe, loved the pictures (I’ve never been to northern Michigan) and the stats.

    I just mowed at the end of last week and even with the high temps, noticed this morning that the lawn needs mowed again. I’m thinking it grew that much overnight – LOL!

  • Patrick Trudel (@sedsinkc)

    Welcome back Joe, missed your blogs the last few days. They’re always chock full of excellent information. I haven’t been to Traverse City. My gf grew up south of Traverse City near Manistee. She says it’s beautiful there, and your photos certainly don’t dispute it. She and I are headed to Michigan Aug. 4. We’ll spend a couple days at her family’s cabin on Lake Huron near Tawas City while visiting her family, most of which still resides in various places in Michigan. After this cool summer, Tuesday here was horribly hot. Not looking forward to tomorrow, but relieved the heat won’t last too long. Crossing my fingers KCI doesn’t reach 100 tomorrow, although if we keep drying out we might hit it in August if the anticyclone makes another strong run at KC.

  • Jennifer

    Welcome back Joe! We missed having your informational blogs over the past few days. The pictures of northern Michigan are beautiful. I have family up there, but haven’t been to visit since I was a lot younger.

    You mentioned that the crops looked really good. Do you think the humidity from the corn will continue to make it down this way. I was in Iowa not too long ago and it was oppressive.

    Thanks again for everything! You are the best

    Jennifer

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