Joe’s Weather Blog: Lather…Rinse…Repeat (MON-8/25)

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So the beat goes on…and on…and on. Not a lot of active weather to write about today so depending on how my mind works in the next hour, this may end up being a rather short weather blog…let’s see.

Forecast:

Today through Thursday: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Rain chances are minimal but perhaps we could see a little uptick in activity closer to the I-35 corridor tomorrow. It’s not worth counting on a this point though so with the grass getting rather crispy again and IF you’re debating whether or not to drag the sprinklers around…I would probably go for it…I know I will be over the next couple of days. Heat advisories remain in effect and will likely be extended through WED and maybe THU as well. This really is typical late summer heat with highs well into the 90s and lows in the 70s. Factoring in the humidity creates heat indices between 100-105°.

Discussion:

Temperatures will remain above average for a while around the region…and while I can see how we could see a break way down the line…odds favor another toasty weather week with the usual KC humidity in play for late August. This will be the 7th day in a row with average temperatures “above average”. We had a rather long 12 straight day stretch in late May through early June (5/25-6/5). We also had a 7 day stretch from 6/16-22 with above average temperatures. So tomorrow will mark the longest stretch this summer.

Looking at the rainfall situation…at least for KCI…it’s a good thing we had that big and record rain of 3.47″ back on 8/6 otherwise we’d be hurting in that category…it’s been pretty dry and should overall stay that way for most of the KC area for the next couple of days at least.

The forecast for the next 8 days off the GFS isn’t exactly comforting at this point for us…although I wonder if it’s underestimating things in the KC area because there is potential down the road for additional rainfall.

ScreenHunter_03 Aug. 25 07.44

That’s a large swath of heavy rainfall across the I-80 corridor extending into central KS…for the KC area the model is not very bullish with amounts mostly under 3/4″ on average.

The Canadian model is certainly more bullish with the rainfall…

cmc_total_precip_mc_33

Overall widespread 1-3″ totals showing up through next Monday evening.

The higher res EURO is sort of in-between with the amounts…with a decent 1-2″ swath of rain along the I-35 corridor from the KC metro northeastwards although the amounts drop off fast south of Metro KC which is concerning.

By the way, Joplin, MO is still running about 8″ below average for 2014…so they need more rainfall for sure down there…

My hope at this point is connected to a rather weak system that is moving through the PAC NW right now…its the little spin in NW Nevada this morning…that shows up on the water vapor imagery.

 

Here is how the model data is handling it…let’s use the NAM model and go up to about 18,000′ or so and show you the 500 mb maps…I want you to look for the “dip” in the flow. That is a “trough” or as we call it a “trof” that will SLOWLY move into the Rockies and eventually spread into the Plains. A trof represents a pocket of cooler/colder air at that level. If you can picture a line going right now the middle of the dip…in the most simplistic terms ahead of the imaginary line the air rises, and typically behind it the air sinks. I’ve set it up so that the model will constantly update for you regardless of when you look at the blog.

 

Notice however that things are not exactly moving along at a rapid rate…not unusual for this time of the year…so how will this system effect the weather here…take a look at the NAM model for the next 84 hours…again this will auto-update for you.

 

From a time reference standpoint…it does get confusing but I’m here to help you. 0Z is 7PM, 06Z is 1AM, 12Z is 7AM…and 18Z is 1PM. It’s even more tricky though in a sense because 0Z WED is really 7PM Tuesday and then you go from there.

The reason why I’m so interested in that trof is because as it gets to us this holiday weekend, and assuming we can be well into the 80s with pretty thick dewpoints…we should become unstable and that should promote additional thunderstorms…especially on Friday and or Saturday. We should have not only a lot of moisture at the surface but also through the atmosphere…so my feeling right now is that the 1st part of the holiday weekend has the highest chance of seeing some beneficial rainfall.

By the way off the east coast that is Cristobal which is a 60 MPH tropical storm as of this writing and should intensify over the next 48 hours. On the lower left that is Hurricane Marie (great 1 min satellite images if you click on the blue link) which yesterday was the 1st category 5 hurricane in the east Pacific Ocean…and for that matter the Atlantic Basin as well in the last 4 years. As of this morning the winds are still 145 MPH (category 4) and now the storm will weaken over the next couple of days.

 

Yesterday we talked about the effects of the storm in the LA, CA area…let’s move further south and see what the folks in San Diego are going with.

 

Well that’s it for today…for a short blog it’s still almost 900 words…so much for a short blog.

Joe

 

 

 

 

 

 

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