Joe’s Weather Blog: Late Summer/Fall Fronts Strengthen (THU-9/4)

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Good afternoon…temperatures are now into the 90s in parts of the area with heat index values somewhere between 95-100°. We’ll see highs today in the low-mid 90s…just a reminder that yes we’re still in summer. Those though who dislike the more intense heat will be happy with what’s ahead.

Forecast:

Rest of today: Hot and humid with highs in the 90s.

Tonight: Clear skies and muggy with a nice breeze. Lows in the 70s. A cold front will move through the I-70 corridor before daybreak. At this point it should come through dry.

Friday: Increasing clouds that will lower and thicken as the cooler air seeps into the region. Showers will start developing as the day goes along, especially in the PM hours. Temperatures will only be in the 70s and conceivably cool drop a few degrees in the shower activity. Those participating in Red Friday activities or football activities should be prepared for at least some rain.

Discussion:

We won’t break any record highs today…but it still is a toasty afternoon out there. Here is the 1PM surface map showing the relief in the Plains moving eastwards…

 

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That front should move through sometime between 2-6AM. Typically we should get storms to form along the front…and while I can’t rule something isolated I think with the convergence being very weak and the timing of the front being what it is…odds don’t favor much activity. With that said I’ll leave you with the HRRR model so you can keep track of any potential changes throughout the evening and overnight.

 

Tomorrow the cooler air will slowly seep into the region…as the front encounters the moisture in place now it should go to create LOTS of clouds. From those clouds there may be some drizzle developing in the AM and as a wave comes out aloft over the front we should see some rain develop in the PM hours. The atmosphere will be juicy so despite the models not really creating much rain of significance…anything that does develop could be on the heavy side. The better chances of significant rain (if it even happens) will be in the PM and evening. Here is a look at the NAM model…showing the rainfall accumulation potential.

 

For timing reference…12Z is 7AM, 18Z is 1PM…0Z is 7PM and 06Z is 1AM.

This model will auto-update for you as new runs become available.

After we’re done with this rain chance…the weekend looks phenomenal. We may have some AM clouds on SAT…but after that we’re golden through the football game on Sunday.

Rain chances exist next week as well…Monday then WED. A stronger front (actually a real fall-type front) should move through later next week. This front very well may send temperatures into the 40s later next week for lows (FRI/SAT AM?). We’ll need to watch far N MO near the IA border next SAT AM if the EURO model close to being right for the potential of some isolated and very patchy frost in protected areas. It’s a long ways off though but with 5000′ temperatures between 0-+5°C and clear skies and little wind…with the strength of the chilly airmass…I wonder.

Something else to keep in mind as we try and figure out the rain potential next week is some moisture from what is a strengthening hurricane Norbert in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

 

There is some really warm water in it’s path and that should allow Norbert to strengthen as it moves northwards…off the coast of Baja CA

 

Interestingly the farther north it goes the higher likelihood it will weaken. No surprise there…however as you look at the water vapor images…you can see some of that moisture may in time move into the SW part of the country…and this means potentially a LOT of rain in parts of the SW from S CA through AZ and into parts of NM.

 

It’s still too early to try and figure whether or now any moisture from Norbert will help enhance our rainfall potential next week (WED) but it’s not totally out of the question. Odds favor that better chances of that happening to be south of the KC area…but it’s something to watch.

That’s it for today…I’ll be taking some time off this weekend…so the next blog update won’t be till next Monday the 8th. Have a great weekend…enjoy the cooler weather.

Joe

 

 

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