Joe’s Weather Blog: BIG Rain + A Chill + Royals Forecast (THU-10/2)

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Good afternoon…some big time gully washers out there today but the heaviest activity is shifting away and while there may be additional rains this afternoon it won’t be as intense or as flood creating as what’s happened these last few hours.

Forecast:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy skies with a lingering evening shower or two possible. Temperatures will drop into the 40s overnight tonight. Winds will increase towards daybreak as a secondary front is moving in. This 2nd front is what will deliver the real chilly air tomorrow into SAT.

Tomorrow: Clouds AM and blustery. There may be some AM-early PM showers moving through but the big story will be the blustery conditions expected as the winds will be howling from the NW at 20-30 MPH. That combined with temperatures in the 50s means that despite sunshine in the PM…it will feel a heck of a lot cooler. Evening outdoor activities (BBQ-HS Football etc.) attendees should be prepared for some definite fall weather!

Weekend: Looks great but after a very chilly start on SAT (near 35°) and a cool afternoon, around 60°…we’ll moderate on Sunday with highs near 70°. The weather for the game SUN eve is wonderful but a definite fall feel as temperatures will drop into 50s by the end of the game.

Discussion:

Thought I’d start the afternoon with a look at a pretty picture that was sent in today by the folks out at Crested Butte, CO I think…always a pretty time of the year out there as the seasons and the elevations play a role in the scenery like at no other time of the year.

 

ChrisSegal_ParadiseDivide

Just gorgeous.

Meanwhile back home…the rain was welcome for many, especially south of Downtown KC which missed out on the healthy rainfall yesterday. There were some flat out frog stranglers out there for awhile and the rain tallies over the last coupl eof days have been impressive. This data is through about 1PM or so and it’s for the past 48 hours (2 days). There are some 5″+ totals in there!

KCI, which serves as the “official” weather station for KC is now up to 4.13″ for the month of OCT…on average we get 3.16″ for the entire month…so from here on out it’s gravy. Hopefully though things will be a bit more spread out. We do seem to have a tendency to get some big rain dumps over these last couple of months.

Capture

Capture1

Capture2

 

The latest radar is still showing some activity off towards the SW of the KC area…as of this writing (2PM or so)…and it’s moving up the I-35 corridor. so we’re not done yet this afternoon.

 

At 1PM…via NEXLAB here is the surface weather map…

 

The 1st front is on the back door step moving in this afternoon…however the REAL chilly air is located up across the N Rockies…and that front means business.

 

In the above 2 maps the temperatures are in RED…so IF you look up into MT and Canada…those are a lot of mid 30s.

In MT…there are flakes flying…here is Glacier National Park

So we know the air is cold up there…at it again comes in 1st thing Friday…

hires_uv10m_kc_25

Notice as well how the winds behind the front pick up…that will be the case through a good part of the day tomorrow…again winds may gust to about 30 MPH.

Again we should max out on the cold surface air on SAT AM…as lows should tank to near 35° in the KC area…as far as the risk of frost goes…I still have this feeling that there map be enough wind stirring things up to prevent widespread frost in the region..however for those who may be concerned…and don’t want to risk things…you may want to cover the tenderest of plants in protected areas just in case. Here is the hi-res NAM forecast…it “may” be overdoing things a bit…but regardless it’s chilly for sure on SAT AM!

hires_t2m_min_kc_16

 

So there’s that…

We should be in better shape SAT PM and SUN as we start to moderate…again SUN looks spectacular.

What will eventually turn into a rather large upper level storm system is now in southern Canada…and it will intensify as it gets into the Great Lakes…IF this would’ve been during the winter season…this pattern (like last winter) would’ve delivered some massively cold Arctic air into the Plains and Lakes region if nothing else. As is we’ll have several days of cooler than average temperatures.

 

As the upper level storm develops it will then migrate around but since the atmosphere up in NE Canada is blocking things up…this upper level storm is going to wallow around for awhile into next week. It will get kicked away TUE-WED and that’s when we’ll dramatically moderate…and probably start to see better chances of having some 80° days return to the region especially for the end of next week.

That’s it for today…I’ll be off this weekend. I may get a blog done tomorrow before 2PM but odds are I’ll jest enjoy the great weather this weekend with the rest of you.

Joe

 

 

 

 

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