Joe’s Weather Blog: Another Heavy Rain Coming For Some (THU-10/10)

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Good afternoon…it’s not exactly a Chamber Of Commerce day out there as we’re stuck in a low gray overcast. As I expected yesterday we have a lull in the significant rain right now…but it will again start to rain again this evening.

Forecast:

Tonight: Rain increasing again from KC southwards especially. Locally heavy rain is possible and some may pick up 1-3″ of additional rain overnight. The good news is that the areas hardest hit last night and this early morning should see lesser amounts while areas that didn’t get as much should see more significant rainfall overnight into tomorrow. Some embedded thunder is possible. Lows near 50°

Tomorrow: Rain will start to wind down as drier air from the north and northeast tries to come in. Temperatures will go nowhere probably and potentially may drop a bit during the day. Readings near 50°. Rain should wind down from KC eastwards in the PM hours…we’ll hope for drier weather tomorrow evening for the HS games and Sporting KC.

This weekend: The back end of the storm will effect us on SAT. We’ll probably be in the wrap-around part of the storm so the odds are SAT may be a pretty gray day. There are still signs of some lift in the mid-levels of the atmosphere later SAT AM > PM..this may generate some additional scattered showers in the area. Highs SAT in the 50s. Sunday’s rain chances come back in during the evening and overnight into Monday AM.

Discussion:

There were some heavy rain totals from earlier this morning. KCI (official for KC) is close to 2.75″ of rainfall today. The record is over 3.29″ in 1985. Depending on when the rain get’s going again…we may make a run to that record before 12AM tomorrow. We’re now experiencing our 8th wettest OCT in KC weather history with over 7″ of rainfall this month…and we’re not done yet with the wet weather.

Round #1 of the rain was heaviest from KC northwards…NE KS was hit pretty good with 3.49″ to 4.64″ reported in the Atchison, KS area (through 7AM this morning). Platte City had 3.24″ and Smithville had over 3″ as well. Farther south amounts weren’t as healthy…here are the doppler rainfall estimates…

 

 

From the image above (this afternoon) the heaviest rainfall axis stretched from N Clay county through Atchison Co, KS. Let’s see how tonight’s rain does, especially from KC southwards.

So far today (through 2PM) JOCO-Executive airport has had only 2/10″ of rain.

Tonight>Friday’s AM rain will be associated with the remnants of Simon that moved through the SW part of the country yesterday. This will move our way overnight and the rain is already increasing out west. That plus the heat that is building across the southern Plains region (Oklahoma City is 91° as of 2PM) will increase the rain later today west of KC….as a matter of fact this rain is already looking impressive on the regional radar.

 

Here is a look at the forecasted rain amounts off the NAM model for the Plains…

nam_60hr_precip_mc_21

Now the higher res model centered on the KC area…

nam_60hr_precip_mc_21

Those are pretty healthy 1-3″ totals from KC southwards especially.

Here is the HRRR model run…showing the developing situation…again flooding is the main concern with this situation…through 15 hours…

 

This storm will slowly move out on SAT…but there may be a lot of lingering moisture in the form of clouds.. Since the wave itself doesn’t really pass through the area till alter SAT…any little uptick in lift may result in scattered showers developing…so SAT may be dicey at times.

Another strong storm now in the Gulf Of Alaska will move into western Canada over the weekend. Then a piece of that storm will break off and dive into the Rockies and then intensify into the Plains and the KC area on Monday. This will spin up another surface storm near and south of KC later SUN night into MON AM that will move through the area…giving us more rain/thunder. The atmosphere overall which tries to dry out later SAT will again quickly saturate as this next wave generates lift on Sunday. So more rain is likely…potentially heavy for some.

There are still questions how long the rain lingers on Monday…it still appears that we should be drying out MON PM with the potential for clearing skies during the game Monday night. A 6-12 hour slowdown though (not out of the question from so far away) could create issues for KC.

On the subject of rain…at this point the rain in the Baltimore area that I’ve talked about is still on track for tomorrow evening…and the potential for a delay(s) or cancellation is still there for FRI night. I do think things will be OK SAT PM and SUN for the make-up game. Although IF the game is SUN night…there could again be some showers in the Baltimore area.

Here in KC..assuming we get the game in on Monday…the weather should be cool on TUE than milder for the WED afternoon game. We should warm-up even more towards the end of the next week.

 

 

 

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