Joe’s Weather Blog: One Storm Moves Out…Hello To #2 (FRI-10/10)

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Good afternoon…not the most pleasant of days out there with clouds hanging around and a chilly NE wind blowing. Sprinkles/mist/showers will continue into the evening hours so prepare for wet conditions for many HS football games from KC southwards and also for the Sporting KC game.

Forecast:

Tonight: Eventually the rain will fade away but it will take awhile.  Clouds will hang tough through the wee hours but may start to move out just before daybreak. Temperatures should drop to near 40 on the northside and into the low-mid 30s in N MO with the potential of a heavy frost for N MO/NE KS…especially from 36 highway northwards.

Tomorrow: We should have at least some sunshine to start the day then partly cloudy skies in the PM. Overall not too bad of a day with highs near 60°

Tomorrow night: Increasing clouds with lows in the 40s.

Sunday: Increasing clouds through the day with highs 60-65°. Rain chances increase near sunset through SUN night into MON…some t/storms are likely and again there is the potential for more heavy rainfall with our next more intense storm on the way.

Discussion:

All sorts of weather areas I’m watching this afternoon…so let’s start out with the situation in Baltimore where it’s raining as I type this…BUT there is a sizable break in the rain moving in before this evening there. That break will last for about 3-5 hours before the next more significant rain area moves in and that will last into tomorrow morning. So let’s get to the data…here is radar from the NWS is Sterling, VA. Look for the city of Baltimore…

 

As I type this the back edge of rain area #1 is about 120 miles away…so the showers will linger there for a few more hours.

Rain area #2 though will move in later tonight in Baltimore…and it’s showing up on the regional radar…

 

Notice, as of this writing (2PM), that area is more substantial and goes as far west as the St Louis area…

So the break in the rain is roughly 150 miles long or so…which means the break int eh rain may last 3-6 hours…just enough to squeeze in the game…again though those late innings or worse, extra innings, could get very dicey in terms of the rain that will be moving into the Baltimore area.

The game(s) tomorrow should be OK in the afternoon.

Back home into KC…we’re still fighting the nuisance rainfall out there from KC southwards as radar shows.

 

Interestingly the lower levels of the atmosphere are trying to dry out…thanks to a drier N/NE flow of air moving in undercutting the rain moving eastwards. The problem for the next 6 hours or so (through 9/10PM) is that this eastwards moving rain is overcoming the drier air pressing southwards so we’re still fighting some raindrops.

On the subject of rain…here are some 48 hour rain totals for parts of the area…

 

Capture

Capture1

Capture2

and a 24 hour rain map for the MO side through 7AM this morning.

Capture4

KCI missed a daily rain record yesterday by .08″. We had 3.21″ of rain yesterday at KCI…the record was 3.29″.

For the month…we’re now up to 7.47″ making this OCT the 7th wettest in KC weather history and there is more coming.

The next storm will rapidly develop on SUN-MON and move through the area then potentially stall to our east. The storm itself doesn’t look like a lot but a significant piece will break off of it and dive into the Rockies later in the weekend

 

The model data clearly shows the strength of this developing storm later in the weekend…let’s use the NAM model at go up to about 18,000 ft or so…notice how the storm digs in and forms a large “U” or a “trough” as we cal in the weather world.

 

This trough should max out in strength near or east of KC on Monday. As it approaches moisture will again surge northwards and be lifted through the atmosphere.

A strong surface low pressure area will develop near the OK/TX Panhandle later on Sunday then move into SW MO on MON AM. How long it takes to move across MO will go a long ways in determining how long the rain lasts on MON and whether or not we have issues MON evening for the game. The NAM and the GFS are quicker in the rain departing on MON…while the EURO and Canadian are slower and basically would have a postponement on MON eve. Regardless it will be chilly and blustery IF we get a game in…I have concerns. Storms that are digging and intensifying do have a tendency to be 6-12 hours slower in reality than what model data shows several days out…IF this slows down…we’d be fighting wrap-around rain with NW winds of 15-25 MPH and basically miserable conditions…

 

By the way…looking at the storm and moving ahead 3 months…well you know what that would be…a major league blizzard affecting the Plains region.

OK that’s it for today…I’ll try and keep my twitter account updated regarding the weather situation in Baltimore this evening. Follow me/us at @fox4wx.

Joe

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