Joe’s Weather Blog: Major Fall Storm Eyes Royals & KC (SUN-10/12)

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Good afternoon..sort of dreary out there today as clouds moved into the area last night and lowered and thickened up this morning…even to the point of some drizzle and mist for some areas…now though just gray out there and temperatures are struggling in the 50s.

Forecast:

Tonight: Shower and storm activity will wait till later tonight for many although there could be some scattered showers before 12AM in parts of the area. Readings will hold pretty steady overnight with lows in the lower 50s.

Tomorrow: In and out rain at times with thunderstorms in the area as well. The highest chance of storms is from 4AM-Noon…there may be some dry weather in there at times then the better chance of steadier rains is from the afternoon into Tuesday AM as our storm crawls through E MO aloft. HIghs tomorrow stuck in the 50s.

Tomorrow night: Rain continues…odds are it will be drier SE of the metro…and IF things could set-up farther NW and the rain get pushed NW of KC there would be a chance the game could go on…but this solution seems less likely and odds favor a rain-out at this point. Also NW winds at 15-30 MPH are likely as the game progresses…so nasty regardless. There is still a scenario though where there could be a game…it will be more certain one way or the other as the radar firms up after 3PM tomorrow I think.

Tuesday: Lingering clouds and showers possible in the AM especially. Depending on how the system wraps moisture around it and where it’s located…there can be some PM clearing…but that potential is somewhat tenuous right now. Should we get sunshine…we could pop into the 60s…at this point though I’ll keep highs in the 50s.

Discussion:

Our whooper of a storm is just now starting to form on the surface. Let’s go down into the TX/OK Panhandle area where an area of surface low pressure is developing…(this map should auto update showing the latest position as the storm moves towards the I-40/44 corridor into tomorrow.

 

As of this writing it’s down to 998 mbs or about 29.47″ on the barometer. The pressures may drop a bit more over the next couple of days as the surface storm heads towards C and E MO. The reason why the surface pressure won’t drop even more…is because there really isn’t any cold air for the storm to suck in…that’s still locked up in Canada…

Aloft though as I’ve written about lately…there will be a lot going on. You can just see how the storm closes off in the 18,000′ range…check out the NAM model showing this phenomena.

 

 

As a result of this closing off process a large wrap-around area of rain will develop (in the winter this would be a large snow area) and it should heavily impact the I-35 corridor tomorrow evening into TUE AM.

 

Remember in the times above…00Z is 7PM the previous day…so on the map 00Z TUE is 7PM MON…then 06Z is 1AM…12Z is 7AM…18Z is 1PM.

Notice as well the large area of rain on the eastern side of the storm…another facet of the storm will be a large area of severe weather potential (not for us) including the potential of fast moving tornados.

 

This area is where temperatures will be warmer and the dewpoints will be higher…so with the wind shear added into the equation and higher instability factors…it could be a rough day for the TN Valley into the deep south.

Rainfall totals around the area still are poised to be in the 1-2+” range with lighter amounts possible the farther SE you get…it will really depend on 1) who gets the better rain producing storms in the AM and 2) where that wrap-around area of rain sets up (that is another 1/4-1 1/4″ potential). Odds are the farther SE parts will miss out on the best wrap-around part of the storm…where as the I-35 corridor may get both aspects of the storms rainfall. Here is the hi-res NAM model showing the potential.

hires_t_precip_kc_16

IF this would be a winter storm…odds are we could’ve started with some rain…then as colder air wrapped into the storm we’d see heavy snow develop quickly with high winds creating blizzard conditions. I’d be pulling out my last few hairs though because the highest accumulations would be dependent on the wraparound part of the storm. So I could see how I would’ve been forecasting something like 1-4″ SE of KC to upwards of 8-12+” where the best wrap-around is located…that would be a rough forecast for sure.

So what about the game…well I can see how there could be a window in getting something in…but it would be miserable to be out there and the threat of rain would certainly be there…take a look at the hi-res NAM model for 7PM MON night…again only a forecast radar…and odds are its not close to precise.

hires_ref_kc_37

Now for 10PM…

hires_ref_kc_40

There will be a dry slot to the storm…always is with this intense type of system and odds favor that to be more SE of the KC area…you can see that showing up with few “FORECASTED” radar returns to the SE of KC proper…

As for temperatures…we should be in the mid 50s give or take and the winds will certainly be an issue IF they could squeeze the game in…here is the model for 7PM MON evening…notice the 20-30 MPH winds (converted from knots) on the northside…those would be sinking south during the game (if not beforehand)

hires_uv10m_kc_37

So at this point my feeling is that the chance of cancellation is about 70% or so. I see a window there where they could get at least some of the game in…but it would be extremely dicey and nasty regardless.

So I’ll leave you today with the water vapor loop and you’ll be able to see this storm develop before your eyes over the next 24 hours or so…look for the large comma appearance to shape up…look for the “dark” region to get sucked into the storm…that would be the dry slot.

 

One other note…yesterday the NWS in Seattle issued their 1st tornado warning in over 6300 days (1997)

It was because of a water spout…that never ended up coming ashore.

Fascinating!

Joe

 

 

 

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