Joe’s Weather Blog: Winter Forecast Time! (THU-10/16)

This is an archived article and the information in the article may be outdated. Please look at the time stamp on the story to see when it was last updated.

Good afternoon…what a day out there…what a week…what a month…what a year! I won’t chime in a lot on the Royals…but my goodness…the excitement in this city is palpable out there…we can’t wait for next wee…regardless of who we play. Watching the Giants-Cards game last night…but I certainly saw some parallels with the Giants and us…so this could be fascinating over the next couple of weeks.

Forecast:

Tonight: Clear skies and pleasant. Lows near 50°

Tomorrow: Breezy and cooler with highs in the 60s. NW winds will be gusty (15-25+MPH). Mostly sunny skies

This weekend: Looks great with highs in the 60° range. A little breezier on Sunday.

Discussion:

Our weather is going to stay quiet for the foreseeable future…there really isn’t any significant weather to speak of…potentially for the next 10 days. There is a strong storm in the Gulf Of Alaska that will break into pieces, one of which will affect the SW part of the country next week and drift towards the Plains…something to watch but overall not an important feature at this point…and yes that goes into the World Series…and even potentially through all 4 home games in KC. As a matter of fact there is a better chance of rain (and it’s small at this point) next weekend in San Francisco (assuming that’s where we end up going) than here in KC for all 4 potential home games into the end of the month.

So with our weather being quiet there is some other things to talk about…including a flurry of winter weather forecasts that have come out in the last couple of days. It’s by far the question that I’m asked about the most during this time of the year…and while I’ve told you some VERY early thoughts (colder and snowy again) some other outlets have issued theirs on a national scale.

Let’s start with NOAA’s forecast…1st for temperatures…

 

I agree with the west coast idea…not surprisingly they’re playing our area as “equal chances” meaning we could be either warmer/cooler than average.

From a precipitation standpoint…

 

Once again “equal chances” of either wetter or drier for the KC area…

This forecast is more or less a standard “El Nino” forecast and I hate the “standard” forecast for an El Nino that may or may not be fully realized and may or may not be a significant factor in our weather pattern. Compare this forecast(s) above by what El Nino climatology looks like…

 

Look familiar…I absolutely hate this approach to forecasting from a long range standpoint. Not all El Ninos/La Ninas are the same. They are different creatures and frankly unless they are overwhelmingly strong in either direction I think far to much actual weather is attributed to their effects. As a matter of fact the NWS in Pleasant Hill came out with a graphic showing the lack of correlation with a weak El Nino/La Nina situation for the KC area…

For comparison…this was their forecast for LAST winter…

 

 

This was reality from a temperature standpoint…

 

Aside from the far northern Plains accuracy…pretty much a bust.

Now before you think I’m picking on NOAA…I’m not. IF you read the blog often during these subjects you know that up until last year my winter forecasts we’re rather horrendous. Many of them are actually because in my opinion the science isn’t there yet for very accurate forecasts…but I do feel that sometimes certain things can be delved into that very well may control the overall “tendency” of the way the winter will play out…

I just wish the NOAA folks would not necessarily use the El Nino “playbook” and rely on other modelling aside from some of the models that they lean on, perhaps too heavily. Heck they’re a lot smarter than me with this stuff…I still think what lead to a brutal winter last year is still going to be a factor this year…and that is the very warm (compared to average) waters in the N Pacific Ocean.

Capture

Remember how I kept bring this facet up about a year ago…it’s still there and I still feel that it will be one of the, if not the, biggest player in the winter weather for the USA.

So with all that said…here are a couple of other forecasts that have come out…

1st Accu-Weather’s

Now the Weather Channel’s

How about the Farmer’s Almanac…

 

I actually think that the Weather Channel and the F.A. may be more of a reality than the NOAA forecast.

It’s interesting in watching the price of Natural Gas as well…

 

It’s low…and perhaps while a small part of that could be connected to the recent slump in oil prices a lot of this is because there is belief that the winter will be warmer than average reducing the demand. Like I said 6 or so weeks ago…IF I could (and I can’t)…I’d be buying NG and biding my time till a potential spike when the colder weather hits over the winter. Then again whenever I gamble I lose (which is why I rarely gamble) so there is that.

Finally today…I decided to dress up as a smurf to celebrate the recent events…I’ve been dying to wear these shorts for a couple of weeks since I found them on a clearance rack at Penny’s….the weather today cooperated!

Have a great day and with the dull weather another update will come on Saturday.

Joe

 

 

 

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s