Joe’s Weather Blog: Arctic Blast 3 Days Away (FRI-11/7)
Good morning…by now you’ve heard of the impressive shot of Arctic air heading this way…it will be sustained and not pleasant to be outside for any major length of time. Temperatures will be running some 20°+ degrees below average for almost 1 straight week. Monday will be the last day that it will be “mild” for awhile…although once this runs it course…it may take till Thanksgiving week though…we should moderate for a few days I think.
Rest of today: In and out clouds with temperatures running close to about 60° this afternoon. Winds will pick up from the SW at 10-25 MPH during the day.
Tonight: Another clipper will pass through the region switching the winds towards the NW in the wee hours of the morning. Chilly weather will again move into the area with lows in the 30s. NW winds will increase to 15-25 MPH. Some clouds will move into the area near daybreak.
Saturday: Partly cloudy in the AM then turning sunny and somewhat cooler with highs in the 50s.
Sunday: Breezy and milder with highs back to near 60°+ on SW winds of 15-25 MPH.
I guess some in the media and the TV world are hyping this upcoming cold next week as something that is rare and unusual. Let’s start there.
I saw this tweet last night and I thought it was perfect for the (usual network and some web site hype) about what was upcoming…
All you have to do is go back 1 whole whooping year and see the same type of strong high pressure building through the Plains and delivering a pretty cold shot of air into the mid-section of the country.
What is a bit unusual is the reasons behind the cold and also the length it will hang around (to a certain extent).
I’ve written since last weekend about the whys and whens of this arctic air shot heading this way. We’ll talk about it a bit more today…but I was tipped off about this post from the NWS in Chicago this morning and thought I’d copy it for you to get another perspective about what’s going on.
“Former Super Typhoon Nuri To Play Role In Our Weather Next Week, But Probably Not In Way You’d Think
A fascinating and somewhat unusual evolution to the weather pattern over the north western hemisphere is forecast to take place over the next week, potentially resulting in unseasonably strong and possibly long lasting early season blast of arctic air into the region next week.
Here is the latest surface map out there…note two storms…one on the right side near the Island chain…and the soon to be noteworthy storm on the left side. as of this morning it’s pressure was 977 mbs or 28.85″. IF you look carefully the buoy report that I have above is located where the # 46070 is. Click on the map to make it larger…this FRI evening the pressure was down to 944 mbs or 27.87″. Earlier this afternoon Shemya, AK reported wind gusts to 97 MPH!
So this is what is going to set things into motion over the next 5 days…
Once the cold weather moves in…we will be locked int he cold for about 1 week or so…with very little modification to the airmass. That means a prolonged period of highs in the 30s, with perhaps a day or two where we can nudge below 45°. Overall though the pattern is a cold one and one that in the winter, with deeper and more expansive snowcover through the Plains and N Plains…would create large areas of 20-40° temperatures below zero to the north of KC give the right conditions.
So we have that going for us at least.
One issue that will prevent many of the nighttime lows from tanking (but not all) will be cloud cover…signs continue to point to a lot of mid level moisture streaming through the area…keeping lows from free falling. We may have several mornings where the lows are in the 25° range and highs are near 30-35° because of clouds…or thereabouts.
Clouds during the day keep temperatures cold, but at night act like a blanket keeping temperatures from free-falling.
OK so let’s recap next week:
Monday will still be mild with temperatures in the 60s…we’ll be warmer only if the front comes through at night…it appears right now though the front will move in in the afternoon. IF it slows down about 6 hours, which isn’t out of the question…we could pop into the 70s, especially SE of the metro with enough sunshine.
Monday night: Front blows through (if it hasn’t already in the afternoon) and the temperature droop accelerates. NW/N winds are going at 20-30 MPH.
Tuesday: Blustery and cold with a slight chance of some snow flurries. Temperatures drop to 25-30° in the morning…we should get some sun though on Tuesday allowing somewhat of a rebound in temperatures into the 35-40° range.
Wednesday: The cold air aloft will deepen (get colder) as a result we’ll struggle to 35° for highs.
Thursday-Sunday (16th): Staying cold through the period with well below average temperatures
Get the firewood ready and IF you need to do any furnace maintenance get it done sooner rather than later.