Joe’s Weather Blog: Accumulating Snow Chances Increasing (WED-11/12)

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Good afternoon…was hoping to take a day off from writing about the weather but Mother Nature had other plans and indications yesterday of the potential of snow over the weekend are growing strong and since I know many of you are interested in that…let’s get to business.

Forecast:

Tonight: Fair and cold with lows near 10°. Once again, like last night…should there be clouds in the area we may not be as cold.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and cold with highs near 25-30°

Friday: Partly Cloudy and cold with highs near 30°

Discussion:

Before I get to the weather some interesting news came across my twitter timeline this afternoon (@fox4wx) and that would be that China apparently hacked into the NOAA weather computer system recently. This may explain some of the strange things happening with weather data lately. There was a few days were we lost the ability to get weather data from Ocean regions…also we lost about 1 week worth of data from the Sea and Ice Center and then this morning we saw data being sent out from 2010 and hence severe weather messages were sent out in error. Also NOAA failed to release that information in a timely fashion.

I want to say some things but I’m counting to 10 now…

So let’s move onto the weather situation…

1) regarding the current cold airmass in place. It is impressive. Whenever in mid-November with no snow on the ground temperatures are in the 20s with quite a bit of sunshine…that’s impressive. Here is the coldest high temperatures for today’s date…

ScreenHunter_08 Nov. 12 13.09

Odds are favoring us to finish with highs of 27-29°…potentially a top 5 coldest November 12th in KC recorded history!

2) Signs of an end to the extreme cold showing up later next week .

3) I’ll be writing about the snow aspect in a minute…but should something pan out for the weekend and assuming there is snow  on the ground on TUE AM…watch out for record low potential. The record is 14° on 11/18. Heck the record for Monday is potentially in play (7° in 1959)

4) Now the snow potential. There really isn’t a strong identifiable storm with this scenario. There is going to be a weak wave coming through the Plains on Saturday. When it gets to us it will really be split into pieces and be zipping through the region. So from that standpoint things aren’t that exciting.

5) With that said these waves will help to saturate a rather cold atmosphere and create lift. This should translate into clouds quickly increasing early SAT and from those clouds we should see a somewhat broad area of snow develop and within that broad area bands some better accumulating snow may form.

6) Where those bands set up will be key to who has the potential of seeing a few inches of snow. There is NO guarantee that even happens in KC at this point. Where the better bands DO NOT set up…odds favor amounts under 1″ or so.

7) At this point the time frame appears to be later SAT AM into early SAT evening…probably about a 6-8 hour window max.

8) For whatever reason 1st snows are always problematic for folks…even forecasters.

9) The EURO model is also showing the potential of light snow on Sunday…something to watch

10) A LOT can change with this scenario…and I’ll get more into the specifics tomorrow. Broad but somewhat unfocused lift scenarios are tricky to pinpoint and can be a feast or famine situation for the area and localized places.

Joe

 

 

 

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