Stay weather aware Thursday

Joe’s Weather Blog: 100°+ Or 0° Or Less? (MON-11/17)

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Good morning…single digit wind chills are starting the day and we’ll probably break the record for the coldest high temperature on this date (24°) and tomorrow we’ll break the record for the lowest temperatures on 11/18. There are other records in regards to the cold wave that has swept through the Plains that we’re setting every day right now (# of days with highs 32° or below and with highs under 40°). See previous blogs about that. Also note at the bottom of the blog a KC Chiefs tidbit

Forecast:

Rest of today: Mostly sunny and windy. Cold air will continue to press southwards. As of 7AM temperatures are 17° at KCI…they may actually drop a few degrees before rebounding to near 23°. I’ll insert the latest satellite picture for you in the discussion part of the blog. Winds NW at 20-30 MPH

Tonight: The skies will clear and temperatures will drop about 10°+ taking lows into the single digits. The record low for Tuesday is 14° set in 1903. In St Joseph the record is 16° set in 1989. I’m forecasting 6°. There was some snow over the weekend (1-4″) in N MO and NE KS and also on the southern fringe of the area…there lows could go sub-zero in cases. Something to watch.

Tuesday: Sunshine and chilly weather with highs near 30°. Winds will turn towards the SW. There will be a bubble of warmth aloft overspreading the area tomorrow evening. So temperatures tomorrow evening may initially drop then go back up before WED AM…before dropping again.

Discussion:

Here is a look at the latest satellite picture showing the situation.

 

Depending on when you look at the blog, especially if you do sooner in the AM…you may see the snow on the ground showing up north and south of KC. That would be the area that could see temperatures drop the near or even in cases below 0° overnight tonight.

I was hoping for some moderation before the week was done…and there will be to a small extent. Wednesday will be another cold day with clouds…30-35° in the afternoon and Thursday has the potential of creeping towards 45°. Then we’ll have another set-back on Friday (30s?) then recover over the weekend.

There is a storm showing up that could effect our region Sunday into Monday of next week. More on that though as the week moves along….at this point it looks like a rain event though.

On Saturday as Ii was talking to the folks in the newsroom about the big story upcoming (the cold), our weekend executive producer asked me what was more likely…seeing temperatures drop to 0° or less…or go to 100° or higher?

What do you think?

This obviously was right in my wheelhouse and so off to the databases I went. I had to go through data going back to 1888. For those in the know that’s some 46,150+ days! The final answer was rather close. I thought I had an idea of the answer though ahead of time, but I didn’t realize the numbers would be so even…but there was a winner.

Here is what I came up with. Caveat time though first. I utilized the data off the NWS Pleasant Hill climate section. Also there were dates that were missing in some cases, odds are those dates were before 1900 (overall). Whether or not those dates hit 100° or dropped to 0“ or less is unknown but probably unlikely So the final details may not be 100% perfect but should wind up rather close.

Random stats first.

Month with the most 100° or higher days: July

Month with the most 0° days or less: January

Months that neither happened: OCT/NOV & APR/MAY

Let’s start with the >=100° days: May-2 June-66 July-286 August-228 September-31

Now the <=0° days: Dec-131 Jan-287 Feb-209 Mar-12

So let’s add them up…for days where the temperature went to 100° or above=613

Days where the temperature tanked to 0° or less=584

So the winner is 100°+ days but only by 29 days overall which when you consider there were over 46,000 days between then and now that’s pretty impressive.

Now the Chiefs…you know my love for the Royals…and I follow the Chiefs as well. I’m more of a Royals passionate fan but still it’s pretty impressive to see where the Chiefs are and how their attaining the success they are right now after all the injuries…you can say they’re “Royal-ish” looking right now.

Yesterday was a cold one at Arrowhead. The gametime temperature was 19° and according to Chiefs PR folks this was the 5th coldest since 1994 for a home game. The coldest is 9° against Denver on 12/17/2000. Interestingly the Chiefs have won 4 out of the 5 coldest games at Arrowhead since 1994!

From a wind chill factor standpoint the wind chill (10°) was tied for the 5th coldest as well. The coldest since 1994 was -12° for a wind chill on 12/21/2008 which they lost to Miami(?!?). Overall for the 7 coldest wind chill games, the Chiefs have won 5 and lost 2. So they do better when there is less wind. Interestingly they’ve lost the 2 coldest wind chill games to both Miami and San Diego.

The information above was furnished by the Chiefs…

Thursday night they are in Oakland and the weather there will be considerably milder than the weather here although there is a disturbance that may give that area some rain on Thursday night. Something to monitor for the game.

Have a great day and stay warm.

Featured photo is, as usual, from Mark Schierholz

Joe

 

 

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10 comments

  • Patrick Trudel (@sedsinkc)

    Great stats here. Your data motivated me to dig a tad deeper, so here’s a few more stats. Of the 613 days 100 or higher in KC records, 99 occurred in just two Dust Bowl era years, 1934 (46) and 1936 (53). Interestingly, calendar year 1936 had the most 100+ degree days and the second most ≤ 0 degree days (20). There have been 19 years where temps have not dropped to zero or below, but 48 years where temps have not reached or exceeded 100 degrees. So while there have been more 100 degree days overall, for any given year the odds of having at least one day at or below zero are greater than the odds of having at least one day 100 or higher, based on the historical data back to 1888.

  • Mike Balding

    Joe-

    Do you think there is any chance we will have another day (this year) where the low stays above 35 and we don’t have rain? We have one more exterior repaint for the season and I need dry and 35+ temps for 24 hrs. At the beginning of November, I told my customer it was very likely we would get it done. Sheesh! Good thing I’m not a meteorologist…heads would roll!

  • Brandon D Medina

    I love the information this blog provides. Surface maps, water vapor, radar and so on are much like your weather cast, always very informative. I frequent another blog, which is populated by trolls( and weather enthusiasts with good questions), that doesn’t provide nearly this much information. My question would be why is this one not the go to site for weather lovers’? Sedsinkc knows what I’m referring to. I would have thought with the quality and professionalism of this blog it would be more popular. I don’t miss the trolls, but I would also love to hear your explanations to the many questions from the other blog.

    Anyway, thanks for the great blog.

    • Joe Lauria

      Hi Brandon: Thanks for your Interesting thoughts. 1) how do you know that we don’t get the same readers from other blogs (I’m betting we do because of folks love for weather information) and we’re not a “go to” blog? 1A) trust me tens of thousands/day come here during high leverage weather scenarios 2) I receive numerous emails saying the same thing you commented on so obviously they’re reading my blog which is the only thing that really matters to me 3) I have a zero tolerance for trolls so that may explain a few things 4) Obviously you really enjoy this information that I provide…so I’m doing my job well and am glad you check in. 5) That other stuff really is just noise to me…I’d rather have a nice environment here than elsewhere. JL

      • Let It Snow

        Joe, I guess by the lack of comments from readers on your blog. The other blog, I’m sure you know which one I’m referring to, during snow or storms may have 100’s of comments while this one does not. Just curious. Is the lack of comments due to have to having a wordpress account to post which makes it easier to ban or are you just better at filtering the trolls? It would be awesome to have that level of conversation during a storm without the trolls.

  • Joe Lauria

    Let It Snow: It’s really up to you guys/gals to do it or not. Nothing is holding you back…but by the same token wherever everybody is comfortable that’s fine too. Either way it’s not going to change my approach to the blog. To tell you the truth I enjoy twitter now for conversations in shortened form as anything. I think some commenters have great add-ons to what I’m writing about which improves the experience. JL

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