Be weather aware Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning

Joe’s Weather Blog: Weekend Drips Then Another Shot (SAT-11/22)

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Good afternoon…well at least we’re milder today than what we’ve experienced in the last 10+ days as we’re finally into a nice south flow. Temperatures are nearing 60° and a mild night is in store for the area…it will again change though, probably by dinner time.

Forecast:

Tonight: Mild with cloudy skies. Intermittent sprinkles/drizzle patches with perhaps some showers developing towards daybreak. Lows holding in the 50s

Tomorrow: Showers are likely during the day with the heaviest overall rain amounts again being off towards the east of KC. Our better rain chance (more widespread) are probably more in the PM as a strong cold front sweeps into the region. That front running into this moisture in place should create bigger areas of rain. The front itself, after passage, will send temperatures tumbling from the 50s to the 40s to the 30s by tomorrow night on gusty NW winds.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with perhaps a few flurries and highs back into the 30s to near 40°. Wind chills will be in the teens/20s for most of the day

Discussion:

Sort of a convoluted mess out there with distinct waves caught in the various flows through the country. So far at least, as I wrote about yesterday, wave number one in the southern Plains, aside from helping to bring in a lot of low level moisture and warmth, isn’t doing much for the creation of needed rain in the area of substance. This wave will be sent through into the OH Valley region.

Let’s goo up to about 18,000′ or so (the 500 mb level) and track these features. This is a great level for us to track the various features in the atmosphere. Click on the image below to make it larger.

500

Now let’s utilize a model forecast to see how these waves (1-3) that I’ve shown you above are going to develop and move through the US. Let’s use one of our models called the NAM model. This model goes out through 84 hours and is run 4 times/day. For timing purposes…12Z is 6AM…18Z is Noon…00Z is 7PM and 06Z is 12AM. This model will auto-update for you.

 

At this point I’m more concerned with what’s happening in the PAC NW. Notice in the above animation that the RED area, which represent areas of “vorticity” or the ability of the air to broadly spin as well as  create lift.  You can see wave #1 zipping towards the OH Valley and the NE part of the country.

Now let’s see how wave #2-3 are doing. wait for the animation to come back to go back to the 00hr on the far lower left side (that’s the starting point of the model). Notice how you have one piece of energy dizing into the Rockies and into the Plains (that’s wave #3) and another moving across the US/Canadian border (that’s wave #2)

Wave #2 in a sense will help to give us some rain tomorrow afternoon as it “digs” through the Plains then curls northeastwards towards the OH Valley Monday AM.

Wave #3 will assist is driving colder Canadian air southwards into the region later tomorrow into Sunday night. This cold air will send temperatures tumbling from the 50s to the 30s.

So we’ve got a pirouette of weather happening on or very near us over the next 36 hours or so. At this point it appears that we’re not in the “best” spot for the heaviest rainfall from this combination of waves. With that said there is enough doubt in my mind about how all this will be playing out that I still can’t rule out getting close to 1″ of rain…although my feeling is that most of the KC area will be 1/2″ or less. Let’s just say I’m happy this isn’t a potential significant snow forecast for the area.

Overall the holiday week will be dry in the KC area with a series of cold fronts coming through will will ensure another week overall of below average temperatures. It’s been a rough last 12 days…temperatures for the month are running 10° below average and the period from the 1st through the 21st (yesterday) is the coldest 1st 3 weeks in KC weather history.

I’ll give you one hint about what I’m thinking…

The price of a gallon of gas was well under 75 cents.

Featured photo of the day is from Bob Minor of Prairie Village

Joe

 

 

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