Joe’s Weather Blog: It Was Fun While It Lasted (SUN-11/23)

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Good afternoon…

A reminder that the Winter Weather Forecast is coming on Tuesday 11/25 starting at 5PM. We’ll reveal each of our thoughts during the individual shows then have our team average at 10PM Tuesday night.

Forecast:

Rest of this afternoon: Scattered light showers in the area combined with patches of drizzle/mist. Temperatures steady in the mid-upper 50s until a cold front moves in after 4PM or so.

After 3-6PM: Falling temperatures and gusty NW winds along with increasing areas of rain will develop in the region and linger through midnight or so. Temperatures which were in the 50s will drop into the 40s and eventually into the 30s.

Tonight: (Update @ 10PM): The rain is moving away this evening and the coldest air allowing a changeover to snow won’t get here till tomorrow AM…as a result we don’t have to worry about a switch to snow at all in KC. Roads should dry off overnight as well with the wind blowing so slick bridges and overpasses are doubtful tomorrow AM at this point.

Tomorrow: Blustery with mostly cloudy skies and scattered flurries possible. Wind chills in the 20s (colder at first) during the day. NW winds of 15-25 MPH.

Thanksgiving: Partly Cloudy with chilly temperatures…highs 35-40°. Plaza lighting forecast is dry with temperatures near 35°

Discussion:

I think it’s fair to say that I’ve not exactly been going crazy and forecasting a lot of rain amounts in the KC area with this (these) systems and thus far that’s been playing out as expected. Despite the clouds and the drizzle/mist/showers this weekend, so far it’s not been terrible. Unfortunately the exact thing that has made the weather more bearable this weekend is again going to change and that would be the temperatures.

In the most simplistic of scenarios this afternoon a cold front to the west of the area will zip through the region later this afternoon. The winds, at noon have switched to the NW in Topeka and the temperatures there will start to drop off.

Untitled

In reality, the air that is moving in is really just a somewhat more seasonable airmass for late November. It’s not as if the temperatures drop off a cliff. Readings now across NE (at noon) are in the 45° range so that air will move in this evening.

There is also rain falling behind the front right now as the regional radar shows…this rain will move closer to us and we’ll also see more rain develop on top of us associated with what’s going on aloft as well later this afternoon and evening.

 

So the bulk of the rain from the developments this weekend is still to come and most of it will fall between 4PM-10PM or so (overall amounts though I still think are under 1/2″ for the KC area. Perhaps well under that total.

Aloft we have several things going on that I’ve talked about extensively over the last few days. We had 3 different waves propel our weather. Wave #1 now is wrapping up across the TN Valley area and is moving NEwards.

Wave #2 is now digging in on the KS side. IF you look real carefully at the water vapor loop below you can see wave #1 and also wave #2 trying to spin up.

 

There is also a #3 Wave across the northern Plains area. Wave #2 and #3 will eventually merge together and create a large storm that will impact the Great Lakes with lots of wind and even some snow. IF you’re traveling through Chicago tomorrow evening…heads up for flight delays. As a matter of fact wave #3 will help to contribute to the developing wave #2 passing south of here. It’s that contribution that should create a better area of rain in our region this evening.

Look at the following images off the RAP model showing the flow at about 18,000′ or so.

 

Use the arrows on the right/left side to go through them What you’ll notice is that the southern extension of wave #3 is digging into the KC area this evening. This will generate lift and combined with the front will create more rain although not a ton.

The air will be getting colder at the surface and aloft as well. Aloft we should be in snow-making mode towards about 10P-12AM or so…at the surface however our temperatures will still be well in the 30s towards 12AM…so whatever falls would melt (of it’s snow) on contact. Then as the entire atmosphere is conducive to sticking snow…the precip will have already moved away…so odds do not favor any accumulations in the KC area at this point. Something to watch though would be IF the energy from wave #3 digs in farther westwards…that could be a bit more interesting but to me at least this seems like a very low potential.

This again will turn into a heck of a storm across the Lakes region. Some speculation out there that this may break November records for the lowest pressure.

gfs_precip_mslp_east_9

It seems to me there have been more intense storms there…but I may be wrong. Still 976 mbs or 28.82″ is pretty impressive.

By the way back to the travel thing…heading to the eastern part of the country could be rough on Wednesday into Thursday. A nasty Nor’easter is shaping up for them. Rain for many along the coastal areas and the potential of accumulating snow from the western Carolinas into New England. So heads up about that.

That’s all for today…probably a short blog tomorrow then I’ll start writing a missive regarding my winter forecast and the reasoning behind it…or the guessing.

Hint #2:

There was a movie that got re-released in this particular year that is still shown around the world.

Cory Bahora has today’s feature photo which are some beautiful lenticular clouds that appear near and over mountain ranges (they’re the “lens” shaped clouds). They almost look like UFOs!

Joe

 

 

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