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Joe’s Weather Blog: Much Needed Rain On Tap (THU-12/4)

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Good afternoon…we’re sort of stuck in the muck today with a pretty low gray overcast that’s not going anywhere over the next few days…add in a cold rain tomorrow and the weather to finish off the week will not be pretty. The good news is that the rain tomorrow is very much needed and will be a good soaker for most parts of the area.

Forecast:

Tonight: A dry evening through 12AM then between 3-6AM rain will start to move into the KC area. The rain should be steady through tomorrow morning. Low temperatures will remain above freezing and pretty steady in the 35-38° degree range.

Tomorrow: Rain through the mid afternoon or so, tapering off later in the afternoon. Temperatures will be stuck near 40° with winds going towards the ENE as the day moves along.

Saturday: We may be stuck in the muck again with a low cloud issue. If so, once again we’ll be in the 40-45° range.

Sunday: We may see at least some sunshine with more clouds. There is a disturbance (weak) coming this way, and I wouldn’t be shocked if a few showers can develop in the area. Highs should be 45-50° with a 20% chance of at least some showers/sprinkles.

Discussion:

Not the prettiest of days out there today. Tomorrow will be worse with the rain falling and temperatures struggling. As I mentioned though at the top of the blog the rain is definitely welcome  considering the dry weather lately.

The wave in question isn’t the most impressive when looking at the maps but the satellite/radar presentation is pretty darn good and it’s targeting the I-70>I-40 region with moisture. The system is really wrapping up nicely.

 

There is a good deal of moisture near the surface to the south of KC as well. The thickest of this moisture will be from central AR southwards…but we should get a good dose of moisture move into the area from the south overnight tonight. Then as the wave moves through the Plains region tomorrow AM…rain will rapidly expand through the Plains and move into and through the KC region.

Rainfall forecasts at this point are pretty much all suggesting at least 1/2″ to as much as 1 1/2″ through the area with some 2″ totals possible towards S MO.

My feeling is 1/2″-1 1/4″ is the most likely playout of this rainfall, on average, through the KC area. Amounts should trail off towards the north of the KC area.

A weak surface low will be passing towards the I-44 corridor tomorrow and that’s why a persistent E-ENE wind regime will be in place around here…causing temperatures to struggle

Since the surface low will be pretty weak, there is an increased chance of a low gray overcast being trapped on top of the region on Saturday. The lowest 3000′ feet of the atmosphere may be pretty saturated with with the winds aloft through 10,000’+ only around 10-15 MPH…it may be a struggle to break free of the clouds. Hopefully we’ll see some sunshine towards the end of the day on Saturday. As a result of this potential I’m playing Saturday on the cool side of model forecasts.

Another weak disturbance (unorganized) slides through the region on Sunday…hence the clouds and the potential of some light showers.

NOAA today released an El Nino update, increasing the odds of El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean from 58% to 65%. While water temperatures out there at 1st glance are warm enough…there is a bit of a process that they go through as this tweet that they sent out shows.

We get to the “What The Atmosphere Looks Like” part and that’s where we are being derailed right now.

Finally you may hear on the news about this article that ranks KC as the most “unpredictable” weather in the US (in terms of our population base).

There is an issue though with this…it’s not that the KC weather is more “unpredictable” compared to another city…sometimes it is and sometimes it isn’t. Perhaps the article should’ve have said “varied”.

That’s it for today. Busy day tomorrow so IF I get a chance to write a blog up it will probably be in the AM.

Featured weather picture is from Jimmy Jobkar (akjimbo on twitter)…it was a gorgeous sunset yesterday!

Joe

 

 

 

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2 comments

  • Mike

    JOE,

    WOW! The EURO and GFS are screaming warm air up until about the 20th of the month. Are you sweating that winter forecast yet? No worries, it’s early, maybe it will turn cold soon. (I hope so, nothing more boring then a rainy winter, at least for us snow lovers) Hoping that we get a nice soaking rain tomorrow. That will be a good start to the winter precip.

    • Michelle Bogowith

      Hi Mike: Yup…screaming for no snow for a long time. I won’t worry unless we get to late DEC/early JAN and it still looks abysmal. Going to be interesting to see just how warm Canada gets…a lot of that snow up there may disappear. JL