Be ‘Weather Aware’: Winter Weather Advisory until 6 p.m. Monday

Joe’s Weather Blog: Cooler Weekend Then Arctic Air Blast (FRI-12/26)

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Good morning…once again we’re coming to a weather fork in the road. We were nice and mild on Christmas Day (53° at KCI) thanks to almost 40 MPH winds. We stayed mild last night dropping to 42° this morning…and today while a cold front is poised just north of the KC metro…some will make it into the 50s again (especially S/SE/E of KC). From here though it gets cooler over the weekend (seasonable) then the arctic air moves in Monday night into WED of next week. It appears that the high for the day may have been 49° @ KCI and at least 54° downtown. As of 2PM the cold front has moved towards the I-70 corridor. KCI is at 47° and Lawrence is at 44° while St Joe is at 38°.

Forecast:

Today: Cloudy skies. As I mentioned last night, there would be a somewhat decent contrast in temperatures today. From the 30s in NW MO and NE KS to 50° S/SE/E of KC (ahead of the front). Clouds will lower and thicken as the day moves along. There may be some drizzle later this afternoon.

Tonight: The front will be crawling through the area later this afternoon and this evening. Behind the front will be the better rain chances as moisture and wind override the front for about 6-8 hours or so until the front is far enough to the south. Odds heavily favor that temperatures should be near to above freezing at the surface when this occurs so whatever falls will be liquid. We would be cold enough after 4AM Saturday to support frozen precipitation aloft but by then the lift is gone and the mid levels will have dried out not allowing flakes to form. Temperatures dropping to near 32°

Tomorrow: Fighting clouds for awhile in the morning but then we should have clearing skies in the afternoon. Overall it will be a more seasonable day in the area with highs around 35°. NW winds of 10 MPH.

Discussion:

Here is the latest surface map showing the cold front poised just north of the KC area…notice how NW MO is chillier than elsewhere.

sfc

It will slowly sag southwards today. KCI at 10AM was 47° while down towards the Sedalia area it was approaching 49°. There is room to go up more as the front slowly progresses southwards.

The front will overspread the region slowly through the afternoon and overnight.

The chilly air behind the front will overtake the region overnight and send the 40s packing for about a week or so.

While there may be some rain showers out there…I’m not expecting a lot of rain from this set-up and while it will be getting colder overnight I just don’t think at this point everything comes together to give us any problems towards SAT AM.

The weekend will be seasonably cool with highs in the 30s tomorrow and pushing near 40° on Sunday.

More importantly is what happens next week as a stronger push of arctic air will be moving into the region later on Monday.

Here is the forecast map odd the NAM model for Noon on Monday.

sfc

 

To see the scope of this airmass, let’s go up to about 5000′ or so and you can see the temperatures at that level…it’s a large expanse of pretty darn cold weather.

nam_z850_uv_t_conus2_29

The 1st shade of purple represents an airmass at that level of -20°C or about -4°F…that is pretty chilly. This is the 1st of at least two arctic airmasses that will be coming through the area.

At least for the 1st one there will not be a storm of significance with it. Aside from maybe some patches of light snow or flurries on Monday night and early Tuesday morning…the big ticket item will be the colder days. TUE and WED we may struggle to get to 20° and some data indicates that TUE may struggle to 15°. It’s possible the model data is somewhat overestimating the cold weather…considering a lack of snowcover that will be on the ground by then.

We’ll moderate WED night into next THU…then we’ll see if the next system can bring snow or rain into the area later next week.

That’s it for today…enjoy the warmth IF you have it today because it won’t be this warm for many for quite some time again.

Joe

 

 

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