Joe’s Weather Blog: Ground Hog Sees Shadow…Oh Oh! (MON-2/2)

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So he saw his shadow again…which is pretty impressive considering all the clouds up there…but the trend is NOT our friend in this regard as he’s seen his shadow now 101 times out of the past 125 times or so…so we have another 6 weeks of winter to go through as opposed to an “early spring” strangely the calendar says spring starts in 6 weeks. March 20th (46 days from today).


Today: Cold start…temperatures have been as cold as 2° this morning. We should finish the day with highs into the 20s. Might be colder across N MO over the thicker snowpack. Sunny skies for most of the  day with some high clouds possibly moving in later this afternoon.

Tonight: Fair skies but with shifting winds to the SW…temperatures may drop a bit this evening then level off and perhaps rise a degree or two towards daybreak.

Tomorrow: Windy and warmer. Stronger SW winds of 15-25 MPH. I was shooting for the upper 40s. I may be a bit aggressive in that with all the snowcover around. Even down south there is a bit of snow on the ground. It will take a bit of time to get rid of that cover. Let’s go with 43-48°. Colder in N MO with the snow not melting tomorrow (30s).

Wednesday: Another cold blast of air moves in during the day. Mi;d start it appears then steady to falling temperatures and the increasing chances of snow. There is the potential for some accumulations. Blustery as well with the colder air diving southwards.


Well at least it’s bright out there. We’re now up to 7.9″ of snow…some 24″ away from my winter forecast. Good luck with that…although IF we lived farther north by a few counties…I’d be a little closer. If we lived in Chicago or Boston…where the snow season has taken a 180…I’d be underestimating things. Our 1-3″ in the KC area and N MO 6-10″ storm turned into a massive blizzard in the Chicago area (and elsewhere). Chicago had one of their biggest snowstorms on record (that’s saying something)…likewise in Detroit. Chicago had 19.3″ of snow (5th heaviest on record)…while Detroit had 14.7″ for their 3rd highest storm total on record.

This information is via Weather Underground.

Chicago’s Five Biggest Snowstorms Since 1871:
1. 23.0 inches Jan 26-27, 1967
2. 21.6 inches Jan 1-3, 1999
3. 21.2 inches Jan 31-Feb 2, 2011
4. 20.3 inches Jan 12-14, 1979
5. 19.3 inches Jan. 31-Feb 2, 2015

Detroit’s Five Biggest Snowstorms Since 1880:
1. 24.5 inches Jan 6, 1886
2. 19.3 inches Dec 1-2, 1974
3. 16.7 inches Feb 1-2, 2015
4. 16.1 inches, Mar 4-5, 1900
5. 14.0 inches, Feb 28-Mar 1, 1900


Here in KC snow has been tough to come by, although the weekend storm did offer up some, even last night we squeaked out about 1+” or so from the snow showers that were in the region. Another opportunity if coming on Wednesday.

A weak piece of jetstream energy will be diving SEwards in the fast NW flow aloft. It’s really not strong and it will be moving fast but there should be some sort of band of mostly light snow moving this way early Wednesday and moving through 9AM to 3PM on WED…followed by a pretty strong shot of cold air again.

These types of bands can create broad areas of 1-3″ type snows…and if the thing is a bit stronger there is another 1″ upside to that…it will be happening as the cold air moves into the region. So the moisture will be getting “squeezed” from the air rather effectively…something to watch and I’m upping the snowfall potential index correspondingly.

The cold air mass that moves in on WED will depart later THU…but THU is still a chilly day. We then lurch right back into the mild air on FRI into at least part of the weekend. FRI may see highs surge into the 50s…there may also be issues with snowcover that we need to overcome 1st…so we’ll get more specific about that in a few more days. SAT as I’ve mentioned several times before has potential to be well into the 60s. The GFS certainly supports that but the EURO shows a front coming through during the day to cut that potential somewhat. Too early to time out a cold front from 5 days away…

This past weekend was a storm that was a royal pain to figure out…

As you know there were varied precip types in KC that drove me crazy from time to time because some in the metro would have one type of precip while others would have another and somebody else would get something else. I created a tweet on SAT night based off the evening sounding explaining the sleet scenario…

Then there is this graphic that I took from NOAA explaining things last night.


Which was all well and good but perhaps to much to explain in a less than a minute without eyes glazing over…

So I took a different approach last night.

Have a great day...a possible update this afternoon on the snow situation for Wednesday.





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  • sedsinkc

    Last Monday, Mike Thompson showed a low of zero for this morning on his evening weathercasts, which was a rather gutsy call 7 days out (imo). Last hour it was 1 at KCI, the official reporting station. Great job Mike (and anyone else who may have assisted him in making that call)! Joe, you also did well forecasting our tricky weekend storm, including snow amounts and when you called for the snow to change to rain briefly Sunday morning before going back to snow. Biggest wrinkle was the early changeover in KC metro Saturday night.

  • Mike

    Hey Joe,

    Darn it, a couple of counties away and we’re in the 14-17 inch range for the season with about 6 weeks to go. That would have made you feel better about your snowfall forecast. I know you had to of been counting on a few 5-10 inch snows to make it to 32. We still have time, but, it’s closing quickly. I thought it was amazing forecast when you said the rain would turn to snow and then back to rain. That’s a hard forecast and you hit it! I had over 3 inches between 1-3 am Sunday, and a 1/2 inch last night. We have a pretty good snow cover up my way west of Liberty. I’m up to 10.3 for the season since Nov. 1st.

    Hopefully we can grab a 1-4 on Wednesday.

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