Joe’s Weather Blog: A Saturday Record High? (FRI-2/6)

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Good afternoon…we’re slowly getting into the 50s from KC southwards…bit of a struggle today despite the winds trying to stir things up. There are some clouds filtering out the sunshine and that is probably holding us back.

Forecast:

Tonight: Partly Cloudy skies and steady temperatures with lows in the mid 30s.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and warmer. Temperatures should be 65-70° from KC southwards…there will be cooler weather the further north you go through N MO up I-29 and I-35. The deeper the snowpack the cooler the afternoon. While we’re in the 60s…N MO may only be in the 40s.

Sunday: Front comes through in the AM. NOT a lot of cold air behind the front…but a couple of things to be alert for. 1) As the cooler air moves over the snowpack to the north…it will cool down a bit more when it moves into KC…and 2) I’m wondering about clouds pushing through during the day from the north. Temperatures should be in the 55° range.

Discussion:

Winds are starting to pick up in the area this afternoon and that should allow temperatures to go up about another 5+° before the afternoon is done. The south winds are blowing over a substantial amount of snowcover across roughly 1/2 our viewing area as the image below denotes. There are some wispy clouds passing through but I think you can make out the “whiteness” on the ground.

 

It’s really become a case of the have snows and the don’t have snows. With south winds blowing over the snow…the farther north you get the longer the “warm” air travels over the snow…and the cooler that air mass becomes. Here is the 2PM surface map showing the variation…quite the contrast from Hill City, KS at 77° to St Joseph at 41°.

2PM Temperatures are in the 50s from KC southwards and only around 40° closer to the IA border.

Tomorrow will be another day with a decent variation in temperatures. 45-55° in N MO to closer to 70° in the KC area. The record for KCI tomorrow is 69° set in 2009. Average by the way is 41°.

There have already been records highs in the western Plains including Colby, KS and Denver, CO.

At 1PM…the NWS in Billings sent this tweet out.

Really there is not much else to say…we’ll be cooler Sunday>Monday…see a nice warm-up again on Tuesday (60s) then drop WED into THU. At this point I really am not buying the REALLY cold scenarios that the Canadian and the GFS are spitting out for WED>THU…cooler yes…perhaps even below average (by then 40s for highs) but the other solutions seem overly cold to my eye at this point. My feeling is that it’s pulling too much cold air too far westwards…some maybe but this is a pattern that will continue to give the northeastern part of the country all it can handle with snow and cold weather opportunities.

That’s it for today…I won’t promise a blog tomorrow since I will be working with the KC Hospice and Palliative care Idiot’s Open in the early afternoon (plus there isn’t anything to write about really that I haven’t already). Sometimes they play golf with 10″ of snow on the ground…tomorrow they may be in shorts. Got to love the weather in KC right?

Joe

 

 

 

 

 

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2 comments

  • Mike

    Hey Joe,

    Let’s just cancel this winter and look forward to some green landscape. I’m tired of searching for snow.

    As far as you forecast goes for snow this winter, well, it likely will bust, but, it wasn’t due to lack of moisture. We just couldn’t time out the moisture and the cold. We had our normal storms if you will, heck, we were 2-2.7 inches wetter in Dec. and Jan. this year around the area than this time last year. I think we were a bit unlucky. Now watch, a couple 6-10 inch snows hit later this month and one in March. That would be a great winter send off!!!

    Have a great weekend. BTW, my seasonal total up west of Liberty is at 10.3. We have been one of the heavier totals this season.

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