Joe’s Weather Blog: Cold Weather Will Get Colder (WED-2/11)

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Trends next week are aren’t looking the greatest for those who enjoy the mild days we’ve experienced more or less for the last few weeks…colder temperatures and snowfall potential will be a sign of winter’s return into the area. we’ll get a taste of it today through tomorrow and another shot over the weekend of chilly weather…next week overall though is wintry. Consider yourself forewarned…although we’ve talk about this for quite a few days already.

Forecast:

Rest of today: Mostly cloudy skies and slowly dropping temperatures this morning. There may be more breaks in the clouds in the PM. Overall a blustery day with temperatures in the 30s.

Tonight: Clearing skies and colder with lows dropping to about 10°. Breezy conditions will hang around for awhile tonight.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and chilly with highs in the 25-30°

Discussion:

A sustained period of cold weather will be moving into the region next week…winter isn’t quite done with us yet. There are still some major issues with snow chances or some sort of wintry precipitation chances as a storm squirts through the Plains. The EURO is the most bullish with this in terms of potential snow around these parts…not sure I want to hang my hat though on any solution from this far out…especially considering the winter that we’ve had around here. The Canadian has something as well but it’s more towards the I-44 corridor and the overnight GFS also has a little snow here. We’ll deal with those potentials later on in the week and over the weekend. Regardless it appears to be a Monday or Tuesday AM event for us…and behind the system will be some long-term cold weather that will refreeze things again around here and will nip any/most buds in the process that have perked up a bit early this winter because of the mild temperatures.

Back tracking a bit though…today will be a colder day than yesterday and tomorrow morning temperatures will be about 30° colder than today. Here is the 7AM map showing the temperatures at 7AM in RED

 

Winds through the Plains are coming from the NW at 20-30 MPH…and they’ll stick around for a while.

This is one cold shot…another comes over the weekend…here is the GFS model for later Saturday into Sunday morning…via Unisys

You can see the colder colors in orange and red are more directed through the Lakes region into the OH Valley. So we don’t get into the heart of the weekend cold air mass…with that said we should still be running some 10-20° below average.

Then more cold shots come farther down the road…here is the GFS ensemble forecast of temperature anomalies for selected times (about every 2 days). (Via WeatherBell). Click on the images to make them more readable…

gefs_t850a_noram_27

gefs_t850a_noram_35

gefs_t850a_noram_43

gefs_t850a_noram_51

The maps above are valid for next Tuesday…next Thursday…next Saturday…and the following Monday (the 23rd). As a matter of fact there are increasing suggestions this may be more of a trend for the rest of the month as well. Here is the GFS portrayal for the next 10 days in terms of actual weather in KC…there is a lot on that may…I’ve put in the day so for you.

KMCI_2015021106_tx_240

This is happening because of a re-arrangement of the jetstream that is starting over the next 5 days…as we go up to about 18,000′ or so…you can see that we’ll be going through a period of cross-polar flow into the region next week.

This map is valid for next WED at 12AM…

gfs_z500_noram_29

The question is will we get some snow from all this cold, or will we be wasting the cold again with a dry pattern for the rest of the month?

Where the cold air and the moisture have combined, rather effectively, is across New England…saw this tweet last night…pretty impressive.

That’s it for the day…a lot going on next week in the world of weather!

Joe

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 comments

  • Mike

    Hey Joe,

    Maybe we can catch up on those snow totals with this cold pattern setting up??? Or, will we be mad again? Feb. is usually good for the ‘bigger” snows during winter. I’m sure you’re like me, if it’s going to be cold, might as well snow.

    Let’s hope the EURO is on to something, that would pump our season totals up rather nicely. I feel there should be 2-4 chances of snow before March 5th. with this incoming pattern. We’ll see. Thanks for the updates.