Joe’s Weather Blog Fast Hitting Snow In KC (TUE-2/17)

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1:30pm Update:

Another fast moving disturbance that you can clearly see on radar is moving towards the area early this afternoon and will impact the evening commute. One thing working in our favor for this one, as opposed to the AM one is that temperatures are closer to 30° and the pavement temperatures are warmer thanks to the sunshine so what falls may tend to melt more at least initially on the pavement.

There will be some bursts of moderate to heavy snow…but by following the radar trends…most of that may stay towards the KS side of the metro and then towards the south of KC late this afternoon. Should you get into those bursts of moderate to heavy snowfall…the rates may overcome the melting ability of the roads…and slick conditions may once again develop later this afternoon in the heavier snow regions.

This will be another fast mover…so the length of snowfall won’t be that long (under 90 minutes for most).

Over 1″ accums will be confined to the heaviest snow areas…

Here is a look at the NWS radar from Topeka so you can see what’s coming towards the KC area…the green echoes are the heaviest areas of snow.


 

One small and compact system is zipping through the area..mow moving off towards the S of KC as I type this. Baldwin City had between 1-2″ of snow and while pretty to deal with…as expected yesterday the timing for the rush hour wasn’t the greatest. It was a localized phenomena and not all of KC was hit by the brief decent snowfall.

Forecast: (updated at 2PM)

Rest of today: Clouds thicken with snow moving through the area. Amounts will vary greatly from a dusting to 2″ or so. Heaviest snows look to avoid the area from Downtown and northeast. Amounts may be heavier SW of Downtown KC and south of the I-70 corridor. Follow radar and those green regions for the heaviest potential.

Tonight: Turning colder with lows down into the single digits and sub-zero wind chills

Tomorrow: Cold with highs only in the teens with sub zero wind chills.

Discussion:

Messy out there for part of the KC metro…take it slow if need be…this little bugger will move towards the Clinton, MO area into the Lakes region as the morning moves along.

 

That’s one done…

Our next disturbance is moving through Nebraska now and moving towards the SE. Let’s see how this holds together because these really are small scale things and just by looking at how the AM one played out…will affect some and not others.

 

The radar views above should auto-update throughout the day so you can reload the blog at your convenience for the latest information.

After today the focus will be on the cold weather tomorrow into Thursday morning as a bitterly cold air mass moves through the area. Another one will move in at the end of the weekend and into early next week.

Temperatures (aside from maybe Friday) are going to be below average from quite some time…potentially through most of the rest of the month.

The following image shows the GFS ensembles which relate the amount that the temperatures will be above or below average in KC…you can see that odds favor a rather lengthy stretch of below average temperatures in the region.

 

Capture

 

Notice how the spread in the data (the vertical green lines) increase towards next week. That is the model showing various solutions. What the ensemble data indicated is an average of ALL those different solutions. When the green lines/bars are tightly clustered..it can lead a forecaster to higher confidence of what the model is portraying.

As far as the weekend system goes…something will slide through the area. We are going to warm-up a bit and that may determine the rain/snow situation with this. There will probably be some rain or mixed precip. How much snow though is a wild card and really it’s too early to even bother to speculate.

Have a great Tuesday…

Joe

 

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5 comments

  • Sigmund Monticanto

    I love these blogs!!! and i KNOW, Joe is from the east coast with his secretive love for snow :P . . hehehe !!! i’m with you man! i’d be happy with a foot or so, like 5-6 times a season :o) – – one small question tho ! when does it look like precip will start to fall on saturday? . . i work nights (4pm to 4am) , so i’m thinking it might be smart to work friday til 4am , than saturday night– – any help would be appreciated!! – and thank you again!!! i’ve been reading these blogs for 10? 15? years . . . . love them!

    • Joe Lauria

      Hi Sigmund…yeah I was one of the early weather bloggers in the late 90searly 2000’s I think? Certainly the 1st in KC. When I think of all the 1000s of blogs Ive written over the years and and since each blog is roughly 1000 words…the millions of words…it’s mind boggling. Now concerning your question.The precip may hold off till SAT morning sometime…and the weekend forecast is VERY subject to change…but as I wrote yesterday this scenario looked different than past set-ups. JL

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