Joe Weather Blog: Cold with some snow this week (SUN-2/22)

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Good afternoon…skies are clearing from the north to the south gradually today setting the stage for some rather cold weather tonight into tomorrow morning. We should moderate overnight Monday into Tuesday before more cold weather comes into the area Wednesday night into Thursday and with that shot of cold…maybe some light snow.

Forecast:

Tonight: It appears as if we’re going to have a lot of clouds streaming through our skies overnight. With no snow on the ground and clouds it’s tough for the temperatures to bottom out…so I’ve raised the lows about 5 degrees compared to earlier. The lower cloud cover that was with parts of the area in the afternoon will have cleared out. Temperatures should drop to near 7° with winds dropping off.

Tomorrow: Not a bad day..just cold with highs Near25° (Cooler over the snow areas north of KC) There may be some filtered sunshine at times.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and more seasonable with highs potentially into the 40s

Discussion:

The afternoon satellite pictures clearly show the lower cloud deck, responsible for some of the flurries out there on the south side…moving away from the region…so the north part of MO is seeing some sunshine this afternoon as I type this.

 

There is still some remnant snowcover on the ground up there…

Obviously the big story today is the temperature switch that has occurred thought the Midwest.

 

As of 1PM, temperatures are running 30°+ colder through KS and OK now compared to yesterday at this time. To add insult to injury there’s snow flying through that area as well.

 

Here is the 1PM surface map showing the weather conditions…temperatures are in RED.

 

Pretty chilly air pouring southwards

South of I-40 towards OK…it’s snowing harder and then coverts over to rain. The cold air pouring south though will create more wintry weather farther south towards N TX tomorrow and Dallas is threatened by some nasty stuff on Monday.

 

For us the colder air mass will hang through the area Monday…before is moves away on Tuesday.

Another cold air mass will work into the area sometime later WED and linger through at least SAT AM. As we transition back into that colder air mass WED night into THU AM…some snow is possible. It does not look to be a lot however…more on that tomorrow or Tuesday

After that there are concerns about what potentially can next weekend. We are going to have to move out a very cold air mass while at the same time see broad SW flow aloft running over that cold air mass. Its a recipe for a LOT of cloud cover…and potentially some more wintry weather that could take various forms. The models today were strongly suggestive of this however how quickly they eroded the cold air mass in place varied.

The reason is that there once again does not appear to be a strong wave to generate any kinks in the atmosphere to promote strong warming. It’s just a broad more or less flat SW flow aloft.

The EURO model has temperatures on SAT in the 25-30° range before creeping up to 32°+ overnight SAT. So whatever falls on SAT would be wet and then freeze or frozen. Potentially then change over to liquid SAT night into SUN AM…then maybe end as some snow (minor totals). That’s the EURO.

The GFS would also keep whatever falls during the day on SAT…frozen (ice pellets or snow) although it keeps all the precip to the NW of KC and gives us some fleeting something SUN as we transition from the 40s down again.

The Canadian model would give us a little snow.

I have no preference about this right now…and can;t get too excited yet till I see whether or not there will be a somewhat stronger wave generate and move this way. There is certainly the set-up for something wintry though. What form that precip takes though is too early to get into at this point.

One last thing…the system before that on WED night THU AM also bears closer scrutiny. That is a nice little surface low moving through…WED could also be somewhat mild ahead of that feature depending on the cloud cover extent. There are definite temperature busting forecasts coming WED with this type of thing. I’ve got 35° for a high right now…but am tempted to increase that about 5° for tonight’s update…and there is potential we could see mid 40s on WED ahead of the clipper that drops in WED night and then ushers in the cold weather THU (20-25°).

So a lot happening this week with rapid air mass exchanges…

Joe

 

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