Joe’s Weather Blog: Snow opportunities ahead (MON-2/23)

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Good afternoon…as I type this we’re still in the teens but thankfully the winds have dropped off to next to nothing so that the wind chill factor isn’t really a factor today. There are still clouds filtering out the sunshine though and that isn’t helping the cause. Warmer weather will be moving into the region tomorrow into Wednesday before a cold end to the week.

Forecast:

Tonight: Cold again with nearly steady temperatures. Lows in the teens.

Tomorrow: Milder (more seasonable) likely with highs up into the 40s

Wednesday: We may end up the day on the mild side again (40s). There will be a surface low moving towards the area and for awhile on WED we may be in the warm sector. IF we can get enough sunshine, it’s not out of the question we could be even warmer. Then the surface low will pass by and temperatures will come down in the evening and overnight. With this drop comes the potential of snow. Depending on where these actual features track we could see some accumulation. Plus the potential of melting snow then flash freezing is there as well.

Discussion:

It’s no lie that snow lovers in the region feel very unsatisfied this winter. Snowstorms making headlines in various places (today it’s a sleet storm in Dallas) but for KC proper it’s been a struggle. We’re still below 13″ for snow this season and it seems we’re being “nickle and dimed” with all the chances moving through. That again could be the cast for the next couple of opportunities. Once comes WED evening/overnight and the other on Saturday.

The Wednesday system is interesting because of where the surface low may track and what happens ahead of the feature. The good news is that the winds will be from  the south starting tonight into WED…this will allow the coldest of the air to rotate away and allow moderation in the temperatures…

That’s why I think tomorrow we should be closer to average (which for KC in late FEB is now around 46°) and why we have the potential to be more seasonable on WED.

The key to the temperatures is where will a surface low track on WED…let me explain…

Here is the forecasted surface map from the NAM…showing the surface low near Concordia my mid-day WED…we are near a warm front…with a variety of different air masses moving through the Plains including downslope warming in the western Plains…cold arctic air pressing south in the northern Plains and milder air moving up from the south.

Capture

Yesterday some of the model data had that surface low farther south and west…that would allow the colder air to drain towards us faster on WED and gives us chillier temperatures. as I wrote about yesterday though I thought we might see the feature set up farther north allowing that potential of warmer air to move into the area through WED before the colder stuff moved in.

I’ve seen cases that given enough sunshine (that is still a question) temperatures could pop into the 45-50° range ahead of this fast moving surface low…then come crashing down after the low passes by and the cold air drains into the region. So in a weird way we may be well into the 40s (or warmer) during the day with snow falling at night. It’s something I’m not sure anybody is forecasting…or at least talking about.

If that scenario plays out…then the warmth we get during the day will allow the snow to initially melt on the pavement then as the temperatures tank towards 10° Thursday AM…we could see freezing. There are a lot of uncertainties with this (most importantly will it even snow here) obviously but I do think it’s on the table. This however could be an impacting event into the THU AM rush hour…just a heads up. The timing of that cold air moving into the region WED night seems to be before midnight.

One thing for sure…it gets cold again for THU and FRI and probably linger into SAT.

It does appear we will be impacted by at least some wintry weather this weekend…the higher chances for snow appear to be on SAT then as the atmosphere warms we may be more in a liquid type scenario for SAT night into Sunday. There is also the potential of some sleet and freezing rain as we make the transition from snow to rain.

It appears as though warmer air aloft will be moving into the area SAT evening…so we won’t be in an all-snow scenario for this…plus I’m not sure how much precip comes with this after the initial wave of snow during the day. So a possible play-out for this would be snow…to some sort of mix to some sort of light rain…to some sort of light snow to finish over the weekend. Again accumulations are possible on SAT…

With all that said however…where the best accumulating snow set’s up is a large question. My feeling is that it may be towards the NW of here…which is somewhat amazing (but ohhhh so typical of this winter considering the amount of cold air that’s in place from THU>SAT AM). Unless there is some sort of identifiable wave of any strength…I also fear that the heavier snows may trend farther NW over time with us being in broad WSW/SW flow aloft.

It appears there will be chunks of fast moving disturbances that will be moving through the flow FRI night into SUN…and where those small fast moving things go will determine how sees some of the better snow totals. This again may turn into another potential significant snow for NE KS and N MO. IF they end up with close to my 32″ (winter prediction) of snow…I’ll scream. They’ve already practically verified my forecasted low temperature. To be off by 3-4 counties would be a somewhat tough pill to swallow. we’ll see though.

That’s it for today…have a great Monday

Joe

 

 

 

 

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