Be ‘Weather Aware’ Friday & Saturday

Joe’s Weather Blog: Expected storms and down the road cold (TUE-3/24)

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Last night was a thundery one…as some thunder/lightning and hail was common through the region. No severe weather was reported however there were numerous reports of some small hail out there. The storms were in the area expected and the rain totals worked out nicely.

Forecast:

Rest of this afternoon: Cloudy and chilly with highs in the 40s.

Tonight: Evening storms will be moving away. Cloudy skies with lows near 35-40°

Tomorrow: We should surge into warmer air during the day…so after a cold start we should get temperatures into the 60s (maybe warmer south of KC). Cold front comes through later in the afternoon and temperatures should drop through the evening hours.

Thursday: Variable clouds and cooler again with highs around 50°

Discussion:

Well my forecast thoughts from yesterday are playing out today with the cold air winning the air mass battle as a surface storm is passing well south of the I-70 corridor. This is preventing the warmer air from coming up to the north. Here is the noon surface map showing the surface storm in SE KS…the temperatures are in RED.

 

Notice the 70s in SE KS and the 35-40° temperatures along the MO/IA border. The warmer air is moving northwards into the storm’s circulation. You can see the contrast in temperatures between Emporia (EMP) and Chanute, KS (CNU).

Take a look at the mesoanalysis via the SPC web page.

 

Capture

You can see the lower pressure towards the east of Wichita.

Our severe threat today in the immediate KC and northwards area is non-existent. Any potential storms later today or tonight will be towards the I-44 corridor into the Lake of the Ozarks and perhaps as far west as Sedalia/Clinton (hail main threat)

 

I realize that the SPC still has us in to a “marginal” chance…but that is even overdone I feel.

The main threats in the increased risk areas are wind and hail.

By the way…the SPC has changed/added a couple of categories on the low end side of things…

Not a fan…could’ve taken the opportunity to change some of the nomenclature, like for example getting rid of the word “slight”. Whatever.

Tomorrow the main threats will again be to the SE of the KC area…Sedalia/Clinton/Butler and S/SE of there. Dewpoints may not be the best however so it’s not a clear cut case until you get farther towards the SE of there.

Here is the NAM model showing the expected development over the next 48 hours or so.

 

We may get some rain with the frontal passage but the better chances of more active storms are towards the I-44 corridor at this point. I’ll watch it for you though just to be on the safe side.

I’m still expecting the colder weather…and while early in the process there is an outside chance of some snowflakes in the region either early FRI and/or later Friday night into Saturday morning.

That’s it for today…

Joe

 

 

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