Joe’s Weather Blog: Feeling Spring-ier (SUN-3/29)

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Good afternoon…getting better out there as the sunshine is becoming more prevalent through the area early this afternoon. Temperatures at the noon hour are in the 50s (a bit below what I thought they might be) but are now in the 60s as of the 1PM hour. My thought is that we should see highs today max out near 65-68° but will need a nice spike this afternoon to get there.

Forecast:

Tonight: Clear skies and cool with lows in the upper 30s

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and very nice with highs in the 70-75° range

Tuesday: Very nice again with highs in the mid 70s

Discussion:

I wanted to start things out and let you know that as often a I can, I’ll be providing a web only video weather forecast. I will be posting this on FB. So look for it on weekend mornings and evenings. Like the FOX 4 News Kansas City and/or FOX 4 Weather pages on FB for the videos. I need to think about whether or not I should have our web page “host” the videos though and perhaps only put a direct link onto  social media. Thanks for all the feedback. The vast majority was very positive and set-up good guidelines for me to follow.

Onto the weather…in text form this time.

The 12PM weather map shows a boundary moving through the region…I’m not sure whether or not it’s a cold front, because the air behind the boundary is warmer than the air in front of the boundary. This is mostly due to the stronger winds behind the boundary that will be developing here in mid afternoon hours. Expect the winds to switch towards the NW at 20-30 MPH in the afternoon. This is when we should see the temperatures pop into the middle 60s or so.

 

sfc

Even aloft the air really isn’t that much cooler so in reality, our temperatures will be getting warmer and warmer over the next few days…probably through Wednesday…and there is potential for Wednesday to be near or above 80° as we’ll be well ahead of a cold front.

 

sfc

 

That cold front represents our next opportunity for some moisture.

So far this month…we’ve been somewhat milder than average (about 2°) and certainly drier than average (about 1.5″ below average). In March it’s not as big a deal as it would be in May…but now that the vegetation is coming out of dormancy and things are blossoming in the area, the demands for moisture in the soil will be going up by the week. So we’ll need to re-charge the soil with some rainfall. Hopefully we’ll get something on Thursday morning. At this point the best chances appear to be after 9PM Wednesday>6AM Thursday for the KC area…but herein lies the problem. Whatever storms develop out across the Plains and move this way should be weakening since darkness would’ve settled in. This means that while the storms may be strong well west and NW of the KC region…as they get to us and run out of the better instability…they should be on a weakening trend.

The hi-res GFS which seems to have the tendency to overdue the rainfall amounts thus far has this solution for rainfall amounts ending at 1AM THU and then ending at 7AM Thursday…

gfs_6hr_precip_kc_16

gfs_6hr_precip_kc_17

One thing that does have my eye though is that surface low across the western Plains. As the front/storms are moving eastwards, that surface low will be moving eastwards as well…probably towards the OKC area or so. It may provide enough inflow into the storms that they may be able to maintain themselves a bit more as they get closer to KC. Interestingly the GFS model is forecasting dewpoints to be in the 60s with the front’s arrival. We’ll see about that. There is a tendency for the model data to over-forecast dewpoints in the spring season around these parts

At this point odds favor NW MO and NE KS to have the better rain amounts, perhaps near 1″…with trailing totals into the I-35 corridor region. There is the chance of some isolated severe storms across NW MO and NE KS on Wednesday night. Gusty winds and perhaps some 1″ hail would be the main threat I believe.

The net effect of the front will be a 10+° drop in the temperatures for Thursday and then a cooler day on tap for Friday.

At this point next weekend looks like another nice Spring weekend in the area. Need to watch the temperatures though for SAT AM.

I’m also starting to glance into NEXT Monday’s weather for the Royals home opener. There are signs we could be windy and mild. A concern is that there is going to be a storm and an attached cold front in the Plains. Where that sets up (far too early to say for sure) will determine whether or not we have to worry about it during the day/early evening.

That’s it for now…have a great rest of the weekend!

Joe