Track the rain here before you head out

Joe’s Weather Blog: Moisture Deficit Update + Some Rain Ahead (SAT-4/11)

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Good afternoon…pretty day out there despite the high clouds filtering out the sunshine. Temperatures are in the lower 70s and a nice rest of the day/evening on tap for the region. Rain chances arrive later tonight through tomorrow.

Forecast:

Tonight: Fair skies early and pleasant. Then a chance of scattered storms/rain developing after 1AM or so. This will last through 10AM Sunday (Chance #1). Lows tonight down into the mid 50s.

Tomorrow: Several storm chances…1) through mid too late morning 2) later tomorrow evening into very early Monday. In between dry. Highs should be 70-75° assuming we break up the clouds. The more “widespread” rain may wait till the late evening hours

Monday: Wonderful with highs near 70°

Discussion:

One of our good tweeps (@fox4wx) @JDDiebolt mentioned to me the precip deficits that we’re continuing to run this decade…so I started to do some research about how far behind we are.

So far in April we’re running .47″ behind (inc. today)

So far in 2015 we’re running 2.31″ behind

Since 1/1/2010…we’re running 20.46″ below average

Since 1/1/2005 we’re running 17.42″ behind average

and since 1/1/2000 we’re running 24.95″ behind average

The real dry years were 2012, 16.58: below average and 2002 and 2003 (14.09″ and 10.91″ below average). The real wet years were 2001 (+14.84″).

Interesting…

Meanwhile let’s talk about some rain chances :)

Tonight the winds above the surface will again be in the increase. data shows that the low level jetstream will be increasing to 30-40 MPH…we’re not exactly in the perfect spot for this though…so I’m not convinced there will be a lot of coverage for overnight convection the farther south you go…but at least some of us should see something…and with that jetstream still going through tomorrow AM…the chances will continue until before lunchtime. In actuality the conditions are better for storms to develop towards the west of the KC area…then as they develop to start moving towards the east…since the winds above the surface will still be decent and since the moisture will be moving into the developing storms as they move eastwards they should make it into parts of the region, especially from KC northwards.

Here is the short range HRRR model via IA State showing the possible evolution of the overnight storms…

 

So this is opportunity #1.

Our next chance will come by a more “conventional” way…and that will be with a cold front due in later tomorrow night. after the rain ends in the AM tomorrow…we should see a lull and hopefully some sunshine. This will start the process of making things unstable again later in the day. As a cold front moves into the instability later tomorrow night (granted it won’t be as unstable since this is well after dark) storms will fire towards the west and NW of KC..and then come along with the front towards KC, perhaps weakening as they get closer to the KC area later tomorrow night.

Here is the forecast weather map for 1AM Monday morning showing the cold front on the back doorstep.

SFC

Again with the front coming into the area well after 12AM Monday…that convection ahead of the front should be waning as it approaches the area. There is a chance that some of the storms in N MO and NE KS may be borderline severe since those storms will be stronger earlier in the evening when there is more instability around for them to live off of. With all that said some areas may see over 1″ of rain (since we’re talking thunderstorms…while others may see under 1/4″ of rain…since we’re talking about thunderstorms)

Another chance of rain will return on Wednesday associated with an upper level storm off the coast of CA now…it will shear out and move into the Plains. How much of it is left and how much moisture it can bring northwards remains to be seen. Then later in the week another upper level storm will be digging into the Rockies. Model data is sort of fuzzy with where this goes…so the late week weather is unsettled at this point.

That’s it for today…more tomorrow afternoon.

Joe

 

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1 Comment

  • sedsinkc

    Nice 0.45″ rain total this AM here in KC North, better than the 0.05″ I received last week. Good weather to sleep in for awhile this morning. Hoping for a little more from tonight’s activity, though the lawn looks lush and green.

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