Joe’s Weather Blog: Soggy and then cool (SAT-4/18)

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The rain continues for many areas in the region although IF you go towards the east of the KC area, the rain amounts have been considerably lighter so far today. I’m still hopeful that things will be drying out in time for the Royals game this evening although a small delay is possible at the beginning.

Forecast:

Tonight: Cloudy skies and steady temperatures with readings in the 55-60° range. There may be a few showers overnight into daybreak tomorrow.

Tomorrow: Another day where the potential of rain will be around as the morning and afternoon moves along. Highs again in the 60s. Some thunderstorm activity is possible. At this point no severe weather is expected in the KC area.

Monday: Sunny and windy with highs in the 60s. NW winds of 15-25 MPH expected.

Discussion:

One of the more popular things MT and I have been doing is FB weather updates at least once during our shift. We’re pretty good at getting to them and I think they’ll be expanding to the morning shifts during the week soon. So as a reminder feel free to like or subscribe or whatever our FOX 4 Weather page on FB to access that information. They don’t replace the weather blog, and I try to keep them to under 2 minutes when possible.

Onto the weather now…as the rain continues to fall for a good part of the region as I type this. Here is a look at the latest radar data from the NWS in Pleasant Hill.

 

As I type this blog I think I can make out a weak wave near Chanute drifting northwards. I’m hopeful that once that wave passes early this evening, it will shut off the rain for awhile giving us mostly dry conditions overnight.

Rainfall amounts thus far have been decent. Some areas are in the 1/2-1″ range.

 

Some areas have seen over 1.5″ so far, especially towards the south of the KC vicinity.

The main upper level storm (I’ve been talking about this thing forever it seems leading up to this weekend) is still out there…in Colorado.

 

IF you look closely this afternoon though, there is a little dip caused by another wave in MT…moving towards the east. Taht dip should be enough to spur the cut-off storm to move along tonight and tomorrow. As it does so, we should once again see more rain develop to the S and SW of KC and move N and NEwards into the KC region during the day tomorrow.

Here is the way the NAM model portrays things over the next few days…this model is just one of many we refer to in trying to figure out the weather forecast. For timing purposes…12Z is 7AM, 18Z is 1PM, 00Z is 7PM, and 06Z is 1AM.

 

One the upper level storm lifts out in a weakening trend as it does so, and passes the area, cooler NW winds will allow drier air to move our way…perfectly timed for the beginning of the work week.

Interestingly this “random” wave that’s in MT today will eventually turn into another cutoff low pressure area in the atmosphere, except this time along the US/Canadian border and into the Great Lakes region over the next several days. What that will do for our region is place us in a cooler and drier NW and WNW flow of air. Temperatures will be near to below average next week and potentially even longer than that. With these cooler temperatures comes typical risks for morning frosts in the region. We’ll deal with those on a day to day basis because various amounts of mid level clouds are expected during the week that could influence overnight low temperatures.

It’s a pattern that is not overly wet through next weekend but is also not devoid of rain chances either as weak ripples in the NW flow are notorious in these scenarios to creating some showers when a forecast is dry and you just expect clouds to move through the region. What happens is the late April sun and heating that happens sets into motion areas of convection in NE…that move at pretty decent speeds towards the ESE and into parts of the area. Where exactly these little features go is impossible to say from this far out since they don’t even remotely exist now nor will they for a couple of days. we may stay dry till next weekend…we’ll just see how things form as the week moves along in the Plains.

That’s it for today…by the way  know anyone in Larimer, county, CO? They’ve had 52″ of snow from this same storm system!

Joe

 

 

 

 

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